Long

"Crypto isn't predictable"

Updated

Alot of people are waiting for the daily candle to close before confirmation, we are almost there. We bounced so hard off 100% retracement, I can't say 100% if the correction is over, but for now we are going up. I bought at 6900 only, it didn't go as low as I thought and I needed to sleep. We had good news from the SEC and CFTC meeting with Senators in the USA.
For now I'm bullish. Still looking at 15 min and 1 hour structure and RSI, I'll sell if things look to bad, but I think we go up from here in the next days/weeks.
Looking at every support and resistances as we break them 1 by 1 (6.5-6600 got blasted and held, 7-7100 got blasted and held, 7500-7600 got blasted and is being tested as I type).
Some people (MacAfee :D) waited a long time for this and they are pouring their money in BTC at a discount. The normies will come buy and created a bubble when we get to 100k (probably before that too) and we will sell and then short lever *5 again.
Doubled up my Kraken account in 4 days and I was very conservative ad careful just going bit by bit.
During the climb up it's possible to profit from the volatily, sell when rsi is too high then buy back on support, rince and repeat, if you're not exhausted from the past days.
For me now is the time to celebrate victory and catch some sleep as my buys grow in value (BTC and NEO). I have alerts ready in case a support doesn't hold for some reason.
"Crypto isn't predictable", good one!

I predicted a dip to 6k the 6 february exactly, several weeks ago.
I linked a screenshot of me sayign so to show how smart I am :D
https://imgur.com/r34py8L

Trade active

On the way up we already pullbacked a little towards support as the 15 minute RSI goes back to about 50. It's now the third time we are consolidating near support (the support is 7500 this time, was 6500 and 7000 previously).
I put down an order at 7512 on Kraken I hope it fills, as we get closer and closer to 50 RSI I'll be watching closely.
I almost ran out of cash to buy I used 80% of my cash on my Kraken account to buy Bitcoin and 20% to buy more on *5 leverage.
We are also getting close to the trendline that started forming since the bump on 5800 earlier.
I'm scared but I keep buying more. Still way in the green since I entered that long mostly around 6800. We can dip and I lose 1% on 30% of what I got but gain 5% on 70%. Hopefully we go test 10.5k and after that 13k (big hard resistance btw breaking it would mean ALOT but i'm not counting on it, if we do woohoo free money).

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We're going to go up right now.
There's a trendline on the 15 min rsi. Anyone that didn't buy on 7500 support, it's too late now :D God see what happens at 8k.
I don't know how to publish a chart in an update but the trendline on the 15 min rsi is easy anyway.

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Nevermind it's not too late. The risk to reward is a bit less good but I shouldn't say it's too late.
As we are consolidating it's a better time to buy than when we are spiking hard full green.
Looking at the 4H chart we're actually consolidating now, finally. It doesn't seem like we're going to significantly pullback before going back up.
Pullback to 7k or stay on 7.5k? We'll see.
Looking at the volumes on the 4H chart compared to last days before the dump is ridiculous. The bars are so much bigger. And the pullback happening has tiny volume too.

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Inside candle on the 2H, new candle just formed.
The inside bar range (coinbase) is 7820 - 7460 and the mother bar range is 7869 - 7440.
Break above the mother bar and I believe we will go straight to 8500 without even stopping at 8k.

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Since bull run few hours ago
7300: 0.5 retrace
7200: 0.618 retrace
7000: 0.786
6800: full retrace
Would have prefered this happens higher but it had to be now.
I better make a huge profit on this, with lal this sleep I missed.
Last time I didn't sleep like this was friday + last night and double my Kraken account then, so it is worth it :)

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7200 seems to be holding.
"The most significant Fibonacci retracement level to watch for is the 0.618. This is the inverse of the golden ratio, 1.618 or phi. The 0.618 retracement level tends to be the maximum pullback zone where fear climaxes as the final sellers throw in the towel and bargain hunters rush into the stock to resume the uptrend."

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This looks pretty similar ...

I'm looking at the 15 min timeframe to make sure I stay in the green but on the longer time period,the 4H the important retracements since the dip at 5800 are 0.382: ~7200 (which just happened) and the legendary golden ratio 0.618 which is at 6800.
I'm hoping 0.382 holds. For me 0.618 if we get there will be an awesome place to buy (again).
Could be a while of staying in the same area till we go back up.

Trade closed manually

Sold for a small profit could have made more, going to reload at 6600 to 6900, if we get there.

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Wow so we went up minutes after I go to bed and I didn't get an alert sms.
Well I was still holding on my secondary account that is on binance so I didn't totally miss...
Looking to rebuy in on my main account on the next pullback.
If we reject 8500 the pullback since climbing from ~7200 could be to 7600 (0.618 fibo), or it could be higher, I'll look at indicators in particular rsi, but I think I just buy on every fibo level and see where it goes.

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My binance account grew 18% wow. Ok. But I wanted to grow my Kraken one...
Good thing I know we get a pullback so I can rebuy at that moment.

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We rejected the 4H EMA and are pulling back.
As every one that was doubting is starting to get convinced we're not going down any more, I don't think we will pullback very much.
I will buy on 0.382 fib and I hope it goes that low.

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I'm looking for a more significant pullback than the 1 or 2 red candles every few hundred $ on the way up from 7200.
That should take more than one hour.
I will not buy before that.
The lower we are the better. I hope we get to 0.5 or 0.618 in 1 to a couple of hours I would be much more confortable buying on 0.618 than 0.382.

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How about Bitcoin at 7600$ in 2-3 hours because Illuminati.

Trade active

We seem to be going up... maybe.
Starting buying small amounts just in case.

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To the moon!!!! ???
Target 9200 (which is where we dropped hard a few weeks ago).
I expect another pullback if/when we get there.
And then time to reassess. Might go test 10k after.
My tiny buys ended up being 30% of my account (less than 10% used to buy on leverage *5 easier for me to track my profit/loss this way).

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The 9200 area will be pretty important.
This is one reason why:

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Getting close to that blue line I drew. I set a few orders near it for some juicy risk to reward :D

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Sitting on the line now, market will decide soon if we stay above or not

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8100 isn't holding.
I guess next strong level is 7600.

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If 8k truly doesn't hold I'll cut my losses and buy at 7600, if that doesn't hold I'll buy at 7200, and then 6900 and then 6500 and then 5900.

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Holding for now... green candle forming

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Think I buy more, the risk to reward is just way too juicy.
I'll lose a hundred or so if I lose or whatever if I win I make thousands lol.

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My 8025 buy order missed I placed it and suddenly we bounce with volume.
No problem I have a solution for that, I know a great site that sells ropes.
Can't always place my orders in advance, sometimes I guess you have to use market orders.
Well, let's see where we go from here, it's not sure we are going up, maybe just a small oversold bounce or something.
Maybe we'll go down to 7800 or 7600, maybe we go down touch my order and then spike up.
Maybe I should set moar orders.

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On bitfinex:

Falling wedges break bullish about 2/3 of the time

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The books say "buy on breakout" set stop losses under formation.
media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2013/09/17/5_Easy_Steps_to_Trade_the_Forex_Falling_Wedge_Price_Pattern_body_Picture_1.png

We were on a support in this case thought, so it's different.

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In my opinion the conservative move would be to buy on a breakout and the aggressive move is to buy at the lower line.
If we're at the lower line and it is intersected with a support, I wouldn't call that very aggressive thought.

Trade closed: stop reached

Nope didn't go up. Worth a shot.
Set some orders at 7500-7600.

Trade active

Started re-buying as we touched 7600 (Kraken).
Got some more orders waiting in the 7500-7600 range.
If we fall below 7500 (not just a fat fingers flash dip) I'll cut my losses and be looking to buy at 7200.
The 7500-7600 area proved itself as a support and it's also the 0.382 retrace since we bounced on 5800 2 days ago.
How hard the bounce will be, that remains to be seen, but I don't believe in going lower on Bitcoin untill I have clear signals that it will happen.
Wouldn't be suprised we go back to 6900 and I can buy some cheap Bitcoins once again, but going test 5800 again? I would be amazed.

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The hourly rsi was nearly overbought when we were at 8500, but now it's at 40 and the 15 min rsi is into oversold territory, so this time I'm going in with a bigger size I'm more confident we go up, it's not "maybe", this time I see this thing bouncing if we truly are in reversal.
If we go further down the 1H rsi will start getting closer to 30 and even go below that so ...

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Breaking 7800 resistance in 3..2..1...
Once we break 7800 I guess my stop loss will be that.
Which would be "cutting my losses" at 3.3% profit.

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Still under 7800.
I hope it goes above at least a little, please :( 5% on this would be nice.
And then after to 7200 to cool off things and at that point we can make big gains.

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A part of me wants 7800 to be breached so I can sell at 8k set some alerts and orders and call it a day, but another part of me wants to go to 7200 soon.
A third part of me is bored and want to go take shittrades on shitcoins on binance.

Trade closed: target reached

God how I hate Kraken I sold for 1.5% profit instead of 2% and sold at market because their stuff is bugged. So frustrating.
I only use this site because it's full of noobs and I can increase my odds with it...
Well I bought 50$ cheaper because Kraken went too low but the serious exchange, Bitfinex, hadn't yet reached the 0.618 retrace, so what I lost because the site sucks, I made also because the site sucks.
I'll make a post about that I think.

Hope we go to 7200 now. Choo chooo!

MrRenev

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