BitcoinLong
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 272)
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “I am still expecting a retest of $3,750 support before getting a bounce.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Long LTCBTC from 0.00812
Patterns: 1h c&h
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,900 R: $4,250
BTCUSDSHORTS: Hanging man + shooting star at trend and horizontal resistance
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Barely closed below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Flattening out nicely
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): At $5,319 and trending down
Overall trend: Long term is very bearish. Short and medium and turning bullish. With the close above the 9 MA I expect the 34 to get retested
Volume: Weak buying volume around half of the MA
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Bearish marubozu closed on the monthly
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h acting as clean resistance
TD’ Sequential: 31d chart is on a perfected 9. It has been brought up in Tone’s chat that this is preferable to the Monthly. It closes on Dec 7th. This mornings rally topped on a perfected 9 (1h).
Visible Range: Nobody wants to talk about the enormous node at $1,000
Price action: 24h: +5.03%
Bollinger Bands: If you don’t want to talk about the node at $1,000 then you definitely don’t want to see the bottom band on the 31 day chart.
Trendline: Broke trendline didn’t quite get retested.
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) bullish | On the other side of the token the 31 day chart is threatening to close below the 33 MA for the second time ever. Last time was Jan 1, 2015
Parabolic SAR: Daily is at $3,511
RSI: Weekly is bouncing from 30. We we so close to getting oversold and capitulating.
Stochastic: 31d is entering oversold territory
Last Day Rule: Yesterday was the setup day, think I missed that yesterday. Trigger would be trading below Nov 30ths close.
Summary: While analyzing the longer term charts I got a little sad. It looks like we were very close to finding a bottom and now I have started to change my outlook significantly. The main reason I say that is because we did not capitulate and now I am expecting a bounce that could take 1-4 months.
I think this bounce could be a lot sharper than most people expect and that is because I’m expecting a major breakdown in alts. A flight to safety could pump BTC back above $6,000 before it eventually creates a new low below $3,500.
I’m not saying this is what I expect, I am saying that this is what I am prepared for over the next 1 - 4 months.
Trading against the trend is extremely dangerous, so if I don’t get my ideal long entry then I will have no problem passing on it and waiting to re enter my short positions. The risk:reward is not attractive on a long at all right now.
The target I would use is the 33 day MA. It is at $5,300 but will probably be closer to $5,000 if we retest it ( moves down every day). The tightest stop loss I would use is the daily SAR at $3,513. The way I see it the risk:reward is 1:1.18 and I do not put my money at risk for those odds even when I’m trading with the trend.
Now I should probably explain the LTC long. Not it's not a typo, it's actually a sweet set! I trade the daily chart and the 9 & 33 MA's are getting a golden cross while today closed above the 4 MA. It also appears to be breaking the bear trendline which is a pretty reliable signal in and of itself.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “I am still expecting a retest of $3,750 support before getting a bounce.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Long LTCBTC from 0.00812
Patterns: 1h c&h
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,900 R: $4,250
BTCUSDSHORTS: Hanging man + shooting star at trend and horizontal resistance
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Barely closed below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Flattening out nicely
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): At $5,319 and trending down
Overall trend: Long term is very bearish. Short and medium and turning bullish. With the close above the 9 MA I expect the 34 to get retested
Volume: Weak buying volume around half of the MA
FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Bearish marubozu closed on the monthly
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h acting as clean resistance
TD’ Sequential: 31d chart is on a perfected 9. It has been brought up in Tone’s chat that this is preferable to the Monthly. It closes on Dec 7th. This mornings rally topped on a perfected 9 (1h).
Visible Range: Nobody wants to talk about the enormous node at $1,000
Price action: 24h: +5.03%
Bollinger Bands: If you don’t want to talk about the node at $1,000 then you definitely don’t want to see the bottom band on the 31 day chart.
Trendline: Broke trendline didn’t quite get retested.
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) bullish | On the other side of the token the 31 day chart is threatening to close below the 33 MA for the second time ever. Last time was Jan 1, 2015
Parabolic SAR: Daily is at $3,511
RSI: Weekly is bouncing from 30. We we so close to getting oversold and capitulating.
Stochastic: 31d is entering oversold territory
Last Day Rule: Yesterday was the setup day, think I missed that yesterday. Trigger would be trading below Nov 30ths close.
Summary: While analyzing the longer term charts I got a little sad. It looks like we were very close to finding a bottom and now I have started to change my outlook significantly. The main reason I say that is because we did not capitulate and now I am expecting a bounce that could take 1-4 months.
I think this bounce could be a lot sharper than most people expect and that is because I’m expecting a major breakdown in alts. A flight to safety could pump BTC back above $6,000 before it eventually creates a new low below $3,500.
I’m not saying this is what I expect, I am saying that this is what I am prepared for over the next 1 - 4 months.
Trading against the trend is extremely dangerous, so if I don’t get my ideal long entry then I will have no problem passing on it and waiting to re enter my short positions. The risk:reward is not attractive on a long at all right now.
The target I would use is the 33 day MA. It is at $5,300 but will probably be closer to $5,000 if we retest it ( moves down every day). The tightest stop loss I would use is the daily SAR at $3,513. The way I see it the risk:reward is 1:1.18 and I do not put my money at risk for those odds even when I’m trading with the trend.
Now I should probably explain the LTC long. Not it's not a typo, it's actually a sweet set! I trade the daily chart and the 9 & 33 MA's are getting a golden cross while today closed above the 4 MA. It also appears to be breaking the bear trendline which is a pretty reliable signal in and of itself.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.