Bitcoin the Bear vs. DXY the Bull
Updated
A possibility where Bitcoin could immediately turn down hard after hitting the top of this rising wedge.
Confluence - DXY has already broken bullish from its falling wedge. DXY and Bitcoin are macro negatively correlated (long-term they will eventually do the opposite, even if they do the same thing short-term).
Confluence - DXY has already broken bullish from its falling wedge. DXY and Bitcoin are macro negatively correlated (long-term they will eventually do the opposite, even if they do the same thing short-term).
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Get and hold above the red box around 36.5-40k, this idea will be invalidated. Bullish chart is also still valid now as well, and would have to drop below 20-23k to become invalidated:
For now, look for one of those conditions to be met to choose which is valid.
On the other hand, I also think there's a possibility where BTC reaches near or just above ATH, then DXY moves above 112-114 and we crash hard just as everyone is getting pulled into the supposed run to 100k.
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Updated this with some possible paths, and re-drew the falling wedge on DXY to reflect a mirror of the rising wedge on bitcoin. DXY may be forming a smaller or larger cup and handle - the larger of which could lead to Bitcoin having a double double-top with slightly lower or higher highs than previous ATHs.
Or, DXY moves up sooner after testing weekly support and Bitcoin either loses the falling wedge and moves down or double-bottoms @ 16.5k before trying this area again.
That said, there's still a case for Bitcoin moving along with DXY, but ultimately I think it'll capitulate, even if it makes a new ATH.
Comment
Possible DXY turns up @ the 200 day MA or EMA here instead of testing 101-102:
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