I still think downside is more likely than upside short term.. Russia news has a lot of markets and traders spooked this week, and for good reason. Also there are a lot of spicy support levels in the upper $30k range, between 
36K to $38k.
But on the other hand- bulls managed to rally price basically up to the 20/21w moving averages (MA) - also known as the bull market support band - its very close (around
46K or about a 15% move to the upside) and I would be surprised if we don't manage to at least penetrate it or test it once or twice.
And based on historical patterns for corrective/bear cycles (measured from the bullish>bearish>bullish inversions of the 20w SMA and 21w EMA), its due for a rally here into March.. if Russia doesn't cuck the markets. Also 50% macro retracement is respectable so far.
So what is the bottom line - what is holding bulls back? Largely 1.) the Russia and Ukraine news; and 2.) the US Fed tapering in March, and potentially taking a more aggressive approach to tackling the record inflation. Collectively these have markets nervous and might hold us back from big bullish moves. If we do see a move upside, look for bears to mount a strong defense along the 12h 20 EMA ($41.7k currently) and the 21w EMA (around46K currently), along with the rest of the bull market support band.
36K to $38k.But on the other hand- bulls managed to rally price basically up to the 20/21w moving averages (MA) - also known as the bull market support band - its very close (around
46K or about a 15% move to the upside) and I would be surprised if we don't manage to at least penetrate it or test it once or twice. And based on historical patterns for corrective/bear cycles (measured from the bullish>bearish>bullish inversions of the 20w SMA and 21w EMA), its due for a rally here into March.. if Russia doesn't cuck the markets. Also 50% macro retracement is respectable so far.
So what is the bottom line - what is holding bulls back? Largely 1.) the Russia and Ukraine news; and 2.) the US Fed tapering in March, and potentially taking a more aggressive approach to tackling the record inflation. Collectively these have markets nervous and might hold us back from big bullish moves. If we do see a move upside, look for bears to mount a strong defense along the 12h 20 EMA ($41.7k currently) and the 21w EMA (around
46K currently), along with the rest of the bull market support band. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.