BTC Weekly Chart Analysis (All numbers in USD)Current Price: $85,194
Timeframe: Weekly – my preferred timeframe for long swing trades or investment theses
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Bull Case 🟢
To reignite bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs to:
1. Break above the 0.382 Fib @ $87,303
2. Follow through by breaking the 20-Week Moving Average @ $92,496
If both of these levels are cleared, I believe we’ll be heading back toward All-Time Highs ($109K) fairly quickly. I currently assign 50% odds to this scenario.
Above those levels, we enter new price discovery, which would require a fresh analysis.
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Bear Case 🔴 (Also 50% odds overall)
⚠️ First Lines of Support:
• 50-Week MA @ $77,321
• 0.382 Fib @ $73,783
→ 30% odds of retesting this level.
It’s possible the market ranges between
87K and 
73K for a while, which would actually be bullish long-term — allowing BTC to build a strong support base through accumulation.🛑 Second Major Support (Very Strong):
• Multi-year Cup & Handle Breakout Zone
• Strong Volume Shelf
• 0.5 Fib @ $62,855
→ 20% odds of reaching this.
If we do test this level, I believe it’s very unlikely to break below.
🚨 Final Support Warning:
•
48K = Critical level→ <1% odds of reaching
A break below would signal the end of the bull cycle in my view.
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Final Thoughts
As Bitcoin is a non-producing asset with no fundamentals or balance sheet to anchor it, all of this is purely price action-driven — so I won’t assign timelines to these scenarios.
📌 Personally, I do not hold any BTC currently. With the odds at 50/50, the risk-reward doesn’t appeal to me right now — I see better opportunities elsewhere. However, I’ll reconsider if the bullish breakout scenario plays out.
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Hope this breakdown helps! Make sure to adjust your strategy based on your own risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.