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#bitcoin BULL TRAP study using consecutive fractal lows

Updated

Only done this study of BULL TRAPS and consecutive fractal lows for 2018. I may do another study going back further.

WARNING TRAPS DON'T ALWAYS FOLLOW CONSECUTIVE FRACTAL HIGHS AND LOWS THEREFORE COULD JUST HEAD STRAIGHT UP OR DOWN

Here's what you do. From the last consecutive fractal low do a yellow arrow to the next consecutive fractal low. Then shade volatility in yellow. Then shade in blue or grey where the price went subsequently. and you get a chart looking like the one I've published. More than one way to trade the information no matter which way the market goes. Custom lower Bollinger Band could be helpful in catching peak of bull trap maybe (set to BB Length 20, Source low, Std Dev 0.001) could use something else whichever your preference.

Chart below shows a couple of examples without traps

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Here is an idea to base trading strategy using Log MACD Log VOLUME OSCILLATOR log PRICE CHART. Brown verticles mark switch of MACD Histogram to green and when VOLUME OSCILLATOR is above zero. Then box in pink volitility to first fractal. There is your box done to formulate trading strategy maybe.

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Copy of my latest post
#bitcoin "to the moon" or "back to hell" what maybe cooking
Volume oscillator & MACD Log format. Marked volume troughs & green MACD & red candle with purple vertical & green in orange. Joined consecutive fractal lows with yellow line. Picked first orange vertical & boxed 3 days volatility in white then wait for break out. Will next vertical be orange?

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Just a note that in chart above the VOLUME OSCILLATOR is not to LOG scale but just the HISTOGRAM version with an added horizontal line in pink for marking zero. Only MACD and Chart are LOG scale.

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Copy of my lateast post

#bitcoin bull intact? "To the Moon" update.

Green MACD Histogram got off to a start with a peak in VOLUME OSCILLATOR ( Volume Oscillator not to LOG but Histogram Format with pink horizontal line added in to highlight zero) previous study needs to be set aside. Have included all such set-ups back to 2013. Have also included some RAYS of closing prices which I'm interested in keeping watch on from another study I've done but not published, as I think it's too subjective.

Had to decided whether trend line should be drawn from the joining up of the last two fractal lows in which case trend line has been broken or wait for a fractal high followed by a fractal low to form the trend line . I have chosen the latter. After forming fractal low price could travel sideways a bit so may have to adjust the trend line with any sideways movement etc.

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As per the above. Need set aside previous post which was based on a different scenario. Looks Green run MACD Histogram starting off with peak in VOLUME OSCILLATOR. Not many since 2013. Looks potential positive. Care though: next day never made new lower low. Also see below - a lot more volatility in making the low of 2nd October 2016

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Note that peak in VOLUME OSCILLATOR has moved to 9th November. It followed market down. A fractal high has also now been confirmed. Notes on chart have been updated

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Up until now all bitcoin industry insiders and media stars have been able to boast OK bitcoin is down but look its still up. Now its different. If bitcoin does not hold above c.$5,400 and start rising that argument will be dead in the water. See chart below.

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#bitcoin nice touchdown based on trend lines maybe. Could it go lower or continue to trade sideways. Sure it could but right now looks like its hit a sweet spot on the weekly. See posts above for close up on the daily and why next week could be critical

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Copy of latest post
#bitcoin crash year on year performance study 2014 drop 65%
Notes of study on chart
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Copy of my most recent post
#bitcoin bear case argument but how valid
Using custom MACD (6,12, Close,31) marked first day up in Histogram light blue vertical when <0 and yellow first day down when >0. Work your strategy/opportunity from 1st fractal on or after vertical. I've just used the light blue verticals for my argument here.

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Bull and bear watch for this signal if it confirms end of today because market insiders could be signalling time is up big volatility coming - additional notes on chart

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My latest update with notes on chart

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bitcoin bull and bear whether tothemoon or backtohell here's the big question. Do we need big dump this time to get pump, or, will it be same pump and dump like before. Could it work out different this time. Sure. Just highlighting battle market now facing

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Copy of my latest post

#bitcoin rise in ROC not volume key to next BULL RUN maybe

New study with huge implications maybe. Could make or break any future BULL RUN. Default indicator settings multiplied by four for Weekly Chart and by thirty for the Daily.

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#bitcoin can't ignore bull break out & upward sloping trend line using consecutive fractal highs flanked by 2 lows based on past performance + evidence maybe of triangle support bullish trend line + bullish breakout yellow box no whipsaw yet. Cautiously bullish

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Study of Momentum and ROC (Log Scale) looks like this best match of past two maybe. Cautiously bullish. Looks like just needs momentum to turn positive. See previous comment

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#bitcoin this looks bad at least I've never seen price break back out the yellow box one way, then the other, and back all year. Could it. Sure could, but right now bears in control

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Copy of my latest post

#bitcoin vs Yuan predicted end 2013-14 bear market maybe.

Can't predict todays outcome but Yuan had same bad month at start of this bear as back in 2013-14. They were first actors in both starts & may be first actors out again at end maybe. Blue verticals correspond to months when both markets red candles. More notes on chart.

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#bitcoin decided publish this study only because something different or odd happened in this bitcoin price plunge which not happened before. This the fourth plunge. Maybe last two buoyed too much by ETF hype etc. No signals to help with buy or sell here though

Felix000

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