BitcoinUpdated The best analysis you will read today! - BTC
Good Morning. Lets take a loot at the chart on BTC.
I have added the VWMA (volume weighted moving average) and am comparing that to the 20 day MA (moving average). Notice when the VWMA is above the MA it indicates we are moving in an uptrend, and when it is below, we tend to have bearish implications. To make this somewhat simpler, as long as the VWMA is between price and the MA, we are trending in that direction.
In order make this tool really useful, we need to compare this to something else. I have chosen the RSI and the DMI to show how this holds together, and show how they behave in relation to price.
First, notice on 2/25 we see a crossover between the VWMA and the MA and then on 2/26 the price breaks above both lines. The VWMA is now in between the price and the MA showing we are in an uptrend. To support this we can see on the RSI that we break above our signal line of 50 and hold there as support. To support these actions with price movement we can see on 3/6 the price breaks below both lines (the VWMA and the MA), and concisely we also see the RSI breaks below the signal line of 50 showing we are going to see a downtrend.
Recently on 3/11 we again broke above both moving average lines again but the RSI could not sustain above 50 and we broke back down. Now you can see how we need these to act together.
Also, just yesterday, the price jumped again above lines and the RSI is above our signal line (this is good). However, the VWMA has not crossed the MA showing if we fall below the lines again we are still staying true to the movement. Ideally what we would like to see is what we saw on 2/25 and that is when the VWMA crossed the MA and then the price jumped above both lines. This would be a stronger indication of upward movement with the RSI supporting this.
There are a lot of other factors I like to see. The DMI is not on this chart but it is on of my favorites to use. If you look at my previous chart on BTC you will see it there. Even though you can not see it on here... currently on the DMI the "-DM" is still above the "+DM" and the ADX is falling. This shows we could trade sideways for a little bit. We would like to see the ADX stay above our signal line which is 25 for this. When we fall below 25 for the ADX we generally show there is not much of a trend going on.
SO, while we are moving up at the moment and testing the resistance line... what do we need to see to show strong support that BTC will go up?? and possibly break out of this downward channel?
1) We need to see the RSI hold support at 50 and stay above this line
2) We need to see the VWMA cross the MA moving up to show support of an upward trend.
3) We need to see on the DMI (again, not on this chart) the +DM cross the -DM with the ADX above 25.
4) And, in general, overall we need to see the volume increase. (we have had low volume in the last 12 hours)
If we can stay above the moving averages with the RSI showing support at 50 we will break the current resistance and test the 9500k range AND test a break out of this downward channel. IF we see the RSI fall back below 50 I would expect to see the price fall below the moving averages and this could send us down to the 7200k range again or lower.
We can look at these individual and guess which way the price will go, however with ALL of these together we get a really good snapshot and indication as to which way the price will trend going forward.
Lets watch closely to see if any of these technical indicators turn and show movement either way.
THANKS for reading! Like if you Like!
Happy Trading :)
Much Love
DustyPH
*all comments are welcome*
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell***
I have added the VWMA (volume weighted moving average) and am comparing that to the 20 day MA (moving average). Notice when the VWMA is above the MA it indicates we are moving in an uptrend, and when it is below, we tend to have bearish implications. To make this somewhat simpler, as long as the VWMA is between price and the MA, we are trending in that direction.
In order make this tool really useful, we need to compare this to something else. I have chosen the RSI and the DMI to show how this holds together, and show how they behave in relation to price.
First, notice on 2/25 we see a crossover between the VWMA and the MA and then on 2/26 the price breaks above both lines. The VWMA is now in between the price and the MA showing we are in an uptrend. To support this we can see on the RSI that we break above our signal line of 50 and hold there as support. To support these actions with price movement we can see on 3/6 the price breaks below both lines (the VWMA and the MA), and concisely we also see the RSI breaks below the signal line of 50 showing we are going to see a downtrend.
Recently on 3/11 we again broke above both moving average lines again but the RSI could not sustain above 50 and we broke back down. Now you can see how we need these to act together.
Also, just yesterday, the price jumped again above lines and the RSI is above our signal line (this is good). However, the VWMA has not crossed the MA showing if we fall below the lines again we are still staying true to the movement. Ideally what we would like to see is what we saw on 2/25 and that is when the VWMA crossed the MA and then the price jumped above both lines. This would be a stronger indication of upward movement with the RSI supporting this.
There are a lot of other factors I like to see. The DMI is not on this chart but it is on of my favorites to use. If you look at my previous chart on BTC you will see it there. Even though you can not see it on here... currently on the DMI the "-DM" is still above the "+DM" and the ADX is falling. This shows we could trade sideways for a little bit. We would like to see the ADX stay above our signal line which is 25 for this. When we fall below 25 for the ADX we generally show there is not much of a trend going on.
SO, while we are moving up at the moment and testing the resistance line... what do we need to see to show strong support that BTC will go up?? and possibly break out of this downward channel?
1) We need to see the RSI hold support at 50 and stay above this line
2) We need to see the VWMA cross the MA moving up to show support of an upward trend.
3) We need to see on the DMI (again, not on this chart) the +DM cross the -DM with the ADX above 25.
4) And, in general, overall we need to see the volume increase. (we have had low volume in the last 12 hours)
If we can stay above the moving averages with the RSI showing support at 50 we will break the current resistance and test the 9500k range AND test a break out of this downward channel. IF we see the RSI fall back below 50 I would expect to see the price fall below the moving averages and this could send us down to the 7200k range again or lower.
We can look at these individual and guess which way the price will go, however with ALL of these together we get a really good snapshot and indication as to which way the price will trend going forward.
Lets watch closely to see if any of these technical indicators turn and show movement either way.
THANKS for reading! Like if you Like!
Happy Trading :)
Much Love
DustyPH
*all comments are welcome*
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell***
Note
To clarify, we are in a downward channel and even a reversal of these indicators could only be short term. I will not be convinced of a true reversal untill we break out of this channel.Note
The +DM is above the -DM on the DMI and has separated a bit more. The ADX is around 23(would like for this to be above 25), and the RSI is holding steady above 50. If we can see these indicators hold, and see the VWMA cross the MA then I would be willing to say we will see a break of the current resistance line and move up close to 9400k. We are very close to seeing this happenNote
Maybe I was a little overzealous with the title, haha, but THANK YOU for the views and the LIKES! You rock!I will post an updated chart which will include the SMA and the DMI sometime tomorrow and explain what is going on with all of these.
G'Night
Note
The VWMA is still lower than the other MA's and we can not break above the resistance line. Also, the RSI is staying above 50 but is still finding resistance in my resistance zone highlighted on the RSI chart. I will post a chart later today on the 'Golden Cross' and show a few strategies using different moving averages
Note
Look at that resistance line! The past 7 candles have been directly inside it. Will we see a break above to show this as new support, or will we fall???
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