Bitcoin Daily Update (day 276)
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around 4K.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778
Patterns: Bear Channel | Potential symmetrical triangle | Potential 1h bear flag
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,675 | R: $3,750
BTCUSDSHORTS: Close above trendline and now the full candle is > today’s close
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0488%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Full candle below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Flattened after downtrend
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: Starting to decrease as consolidation continues
FIB’s: Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Full bodied bearish candle
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud shows massive resistance from $3,974 to $4,900
TD’ Sequential: 4h r8 | Daily r5
Visible Range: High volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 holding as resistance. Surprised we haven’t fallen through the gap down to $2,977
Price action: 24h: -3.47%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $4,217
Trendline: Lower highs and higher lows form symmetrical triangle
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bearish
Parabolic SAR: Broke the SAR on Coinbase but not on Bitmex. I trust Bitmex due to higher volume / liquidity
RSI: Did form h&s and just confirmed it
Stochastic: Looking very similar to RSI. Will it get a bullish recross?
Last Day Rule: Trigger day for bears is $4,444 and trigger day for bulls is $3,420
Summary: Still expecting consolidation towards the 33 MA, however the next 24 hours are crucial. If we breakdown $3,420 support then that changes everything. Normally setting a sell stop at $3,414 would make a lot of sense.
However there are a number of reasons why I am going to pass on that. Mainly I am not in love with the risk:reward of selling < $3,500 due to the massive support that lies below. Furthermore BTCUSDSHORTS’ are retesting ATHs and a short squeeze is to be expected. Another reason I am not interested is there are much better opportunities shorting alts right now.
ETH:USD is forming a similar triangle at $100 support. If that breaks down then it should fall to $35 - $50 very quickly. ETH:BTC is also threatening to break down major support. If you check my ‘positions’ outlined above then you know I have been shorting ETH:BTC for a while. As I continue to move my stop further into profit I also look for opportunities to add.
Today’s close below 0.0274 provided a great opportunity to increase my exposure.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around 4K.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778
Patterns: Bear Channel | Potential symmetrical triangle | Potential 1h bear flag
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,675 | R: $3,750
BTCUSDSHORTS: Close above trendline and now the full candle is > today’s close
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0488%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Full candle below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Flattened after downtrend
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: Starting to decrease as consolidation continues
FIB’s: Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Full bodied bearish candle
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud shows massive resistance from $3,974 to $4,900
TD’ Sequential: 4h r8 | Daily r5
Visible Range: High volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 holding as resistance. Surprised we haven’t fallen through the gap down to $2,977
Price action: 24h: -3.47%
Bollinger Bands: MA at $4,217
Trendline: Lower highs and higher lows form symmetrical triangle
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bearish
Parabolic SAR: Broke the SAR on Coinbase but not on Bitmex. I trust Bitmex due to higher volume / liquidity
RSI: Did form h&s and just confirmed it
Stochastic: Looking very similar to RSI. Will it get a bullish recross?
Last Day Rule: Trigger day for bears is $4,444 and trigger day for bulls is $3,420
Summary: Still expecting consolidation towards the 33 MA, however the next 24 hours are crucial. If we breakdown $3,420 support then that changes everything. Normally setting a sell stop at $3,414 would make a lot of sense.
However there are a number of reasons why I am going to pass on that. Mainly I am not in love with the risk:reward of selling < $3,500 due to the massive support that lies below. Furthermore BTCUSDSHORTS’ are retesting ATHs and a short squeeze is to be expected. Another reason I am not interested is there are much better opportunities shorting alts right now.
ETH:USD is forming a similar triangle at $100 support. If that breaks down then it should fall to $35 - $50 very quickly. ETH:BTC is also threatening to break down major support. If you check my ‘positions’ outlined above then you know I have been shorting ETH:BTC for a while. As I continue to move my stop further into profit I also look for opportunities to add.
Today’s close below 0.0274 provided a great opportunity to increase my exposure.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.