BTC/USD update
Let’s have a look at BTC/USD using as many indicators as i can. The purpose of my post as always is not price predication but more education on what these various indicators and squiggly lines are indicating.
As you can see on this Bitstamp 1d chart, BTC is in a Descending Triangle Pattern ‘potentially a Bearish Continuation’ as well as a Falling Wedge Pattern ‘potentially a Bullish Reversal’ on this 1d timeframe.
If we look at the Schiff Pitchfork Pattern (A,B,C) we can see that BTC is still below the Schiff Pitchfork Median Line. BTC is still above its Lower Yellow Schiff Pitchfork Support Line, a close below this level will possibly result in BTC revisiting its previous low of around $39,580, a close below that will take BTC down to its 50% Trend-Based Fib Extension level at around $38,536.
At the moment BTC is fighting to get back above its 38.2% Trend-Based Fib Extension Level.
BTC is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1d timeframe. Note that the Middle, Upper and Lower Bands are all sloping downwards and we have slight expansion of the Lower Band.
BTC is getting really close to to testing its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) as support on this 1d timeframe. If BTC closes a daily candle below the LSMA then that is potentially a sell signal.
Looking at the Ichimoku Cloud with the 20,60,120,30 settings:
The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that the Mid Point of the Short-Term momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the Mid Point of the Mid-Term momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that the momentum at the moment is downwards. Note that the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is still under the price from 30 Periods ago, this is not good a good sign.
BTC is still well within the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud, note that the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) resistance level is pointing downwards further confirming nagative momentum. We should expect even more of a drop if the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) starts to point downwards in parallel with the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A).
Let’s take a look at 4 different Momentum Indicators and see what each are telling us on this 1d timeframe.
Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is pointing slightly downwards at the moment indicating slight Negative Momentum. The MACD Line (Blue Line) is still above its Signal Line (Orange Line) but it is still in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line and note that the Green Histograms are getting lighter and decreasing in size. If the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back under the Signal Line (Orange Line) then that will be a sell signal on this 1d timeframe. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) has not been in the Positive Zone above the 0.0 Base Line since 18th Nov 2021.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that Negative Momentum is still strong with the -DI (Red Line) at 27.83 and it is still above its +DI (Green Line) which has dropped to 12.05. Note that the Trend Strength is increasing with the ADX (Orange Line) rising to 36.88 and it is still above its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 36.55. Note that the +DI (Green Line) has not been above the -DI (Red Line) since 15th Nov 2021.
Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) we can see that accumulation has actually increased with the CMF (Green Line) rising up from -0.24 on the 5h Jan to 0.01 just above the 0.0 Base Line. Note that the CMF (Green Line) is still above its 9 Period EMA (Cyan Line) indicating accumulation strength on this 1d timeframe. Note that the CMF (Green Line) has popped out of the Negative Zone at the moment, note that the CMF has not closed in the Accumulation Zone above the 0.0 Base Line since 24th Dec 2021. Look for a successful daily close above the 0.0 Base Line
If we look at the Elder Force Index (EFI) we can clearly see that the Bears are still in control because the EFI Line (Red Line) is still under the 0 Base Line indicating a Negative Elder Force. Note that the EFI Line (Red Line) is also starting to point downwards. If the EFI Line (Red Line) crosses back below its 9 Period EMA (Cyan Line) then that may see continued and faster negative momentum for BTC on this 1d timeframe. Note that the EFI Line (Red Line) has not produced a strong Positive Elder Force signal since 15th Nov 2021.
Here is a closer look at this Bitstamp 1d BTC chart:
So what does all this tell me for the medium to longterm, it tells me that for the medium to longterm unless BTC starts CLOSING daily candles ABOVE key levels like the Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis and the Schiff Pitchfork Median Line on this 1d timeframe then we will see continued downwards momentum at worst or sideways momentum within a range at best. The LSMA is a key indicator to watch on this 1d timeframe, just trace back on the chart to see what may happen when the price successfully closes ABOVE or BELOW the LSMA indicator.
I hope this post helpful with your understanding of what the above indictors are indicating and i hope this is helpful with your Trading and Hodl-ing.
As you can see on this Bitstamp 1d chart, BTC is in a Descending Triangle Pattern ‘potentially a Bearish Continuation’ as well as a Falling Wedge Pattern ‘potentially a Bullish Reversal’ on this 1d timeframe.
If we look at the Schiff Pitchfork Pattern (A,B,C) we can see that BTC is still below the Schiff Pitchfork Median Line. BTC is still above its Lower Yellow Schiff Pitchfork Support Line, a close below this level will possibly result in BTC revisiting its previous low of around $39,580, a close below that will take BTC down to its 50% Trend-Based Fib Extension level at around $38,536.
At the moment BTC is fighting to get back above its 38.2% Trend-Based Fib Extension Level.
BTC is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1d timeframe. Note that the Middle, Upper and Lower Bands are all sloping downwards and we have slight expansion of the Lower Band.
BTC is getting really close to to testing its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) as support on this 1d timeframe. If BTC closes a daily candle below the LSMA then that is potentially a sell signal.
Looking at the Ichimoku Cloud with the 20,60,120,30 settings:
The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that the Mid Point of the Short-Term momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the Mid Point of the Mid-Term momentum is sideways at the moment.
The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that the momentum at the moment is downwards. Note that the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is still under the price from 30 Periods ago, this is not good a good sign.
BTC is still well within the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud, note that the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) resistance level is pointing downwards further confirming nagative momentum. We should expect even more of a drop if the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) starts to point downwards in parallel with the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A).
Let’s take a look at 4 different Momentum Indicators and see what each are telling us on this 1d timeframe.
Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is pointing slightly downwards at the moment indicating slight Negative Momentum. The MACD Line (Blue Line) is still above its Signal Line (Orange Line) but it is still in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line and note that the Green Histograms are getting lighter and decreasing in size. If the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back under the Signal Line (Orange Line) then that will be a sell signal on this 1d timeframe. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) has not been in the Positive Zone above the 0.0 Base Line since 18th Nov 2021.
Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that Negative Momentum is still strong with the -DI (Red Line) at 27.83 and it is still above its +DI (Green Line) which has dropped to 12.05. Note that the Trend Strength is increasing with the ADX (Orange Line) rising to 36.88 and it is still above its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 36.55. Note that the +DI (Green Line) has not been above the -DI (Red Line) since 15th Nov 2021.
Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) we can see that accumulation has actually increased with the CMF (Green Line) rising up from -0.24 on the 5h Jan to 0.01 just above the 0.0 Base Line. Note that the CMF (Green Line) is still above its 9 Period EMA (Cyan Line) indicating accumulation strength on this 1d timeframe. Note that the CMF (Green Line) has popped out of the Negative Zone at the moment, note that the CMF has not closed in the Accumulation Zone above the 0.0 Base Line since 24th Dec 2021. Look for a successful daily close above the 0.0 Base Line
If we look at the Elder Force Index (EFI) we can clearly see that the Bears are still in control because the EFI Line (Red Line) is still under the 0 Base Line indicating a Negative Elder Force. Note that the EFI Line (Red Line) is also starting to point downwards. If the EFI Line (Red Line) crosses back below its 9 Period EMA (Cyan Line) then that may see continued and faster negative momentum for BTC on this 1d timeframe. Note that the EFI Line (Red Line) has not produced a strong Positive Elder Force signal since 15th Nov 2021.
Here is a closer look at this Bitstamp 1d BTC chart:
So what does all this tell me for the medium to longterm, it tells me that for the medium to longterm unless BTC starts CLOSING daily candles ABOVE key levels like the Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis and the Schiff Pitchfork Median Line on this 1d timeframe then we will see continued downwards momentum at worst or sideways momentum within a range at best. The LSMA is a key indicator to watch on this 1d timeframe, just trace back on the chart to see what may happen when the price successfully closes ABOVE or BELOW the LSMA indicator.
I hope this post helpful with your understanding of what the above indictors are indicating and i hope this is helpful with your Trading and Hodl-ing.
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