Bitcoin in a 350$ range downward Channel
Updated
(Bitfinex Prices)
On the left Side of the Chart you can see my former Analysis from the 13th January. What are my takeaways from the last 2.5 Weeks:
1. I didn't expect the down move on January 13 - just Minutes after I published my Idea. But we moved back into the channel 22h later.
2. I expected the Up-move to happen earlier. Instead of 14/15 January the Up-Move happened on Saturday 19th.
3. Expected a Wick up to 3880$ or even 4000$. Halted exactly at 3880$, so it wasn't a really strong move.One day later we had a down move to 3570$.
So what happened since then: 1) A (fake) breakdown and horrible Wick to scare Longs on Jan22. 2) Wick Up on Jan26. 3) Slow and steady downtrend toward 3420$.
We saw some resistance there, followed by the current, small up move which seems to fail at this Moment. But it could still go higher towards 3600$ and some Alts are pumping too. Personally I expect that this up move will fail spectacularly and will be followed by a brutal breakdown towards 3200
Because:
- Volume is still very low. There is no fresh money incoming, just no interest out there to buy at even this low levels.
- Long/Short Ratio - still to many Longs. Before every major breakdown Shorts were at a lower level.
- 4h Channel seems to build strong resistance to the upper side - but of course also for the downside. Breaking one of them will be followed by a major pump or dump. The last days are telling us that a dump is more possible (as we are in Crypto - the more obvious scenario does not have to play out of course).
After that breakdown: Small recovery - and then diving below 3000$ in March / April. Low in Summer around 2000$.
If adaption, regulation, decentralization and public interest looks better in autumn, the bear market may be over but unless none of them changes dramatically there is no reason this centralized coin - owned by some whales - has a future.
On the left Side of the Chart you can see my former Analysis from the 13th January. What are my takeaways from the last 2.5 Weeks:
1. I didn't expect the down move on January 13 - just Minutes after I published my Idea. But we moved back into the channel 22h later.
2. I expected the Up-move to happen earlier. Instead of 14/15 January the Up-Move happened on Saturday 19th.
3. Expected a Wick up to 3880$ or even 4000$. Halted exactly at 3880$, so it wasn't a really strong move.One day later we had a down move to 3570$.
So what happened since then: 1) A (fake) breakdown and horrible Wick to scare Longs on Jan22. 2) Wick Up on Jan26. 3) Slow and steady downtrend toward 3420$.
We saw some resistance there, followed by the current, small up move which seems to fail at this Moment. But it could still go higher towards 3600$ and some Alts are pumping too. Personally I expect that this up move will fail spectacularly and will be followed by a brutal breakdown towards 3200
Because:
- Volume is still very low. There is no fresh money incoming, just no interest out there to buy at even this low levels.
- Long/Short Ratio - still to many Longs. Before every major breakdown Shorts were at a lower level.
- 4h Channel seems to build strong resistance to the upper side - but of course also for the downside. Breaking one of them will be followed by a major pump or dump. The last days are telling us that a dump is more possible (as we are in Crypto - the more obvious scenario does not have to play out of course).
After that breakdown: Small recovery - and then diving below 3000$ in March / April. Low in Summer around 2000$.
If adaption, regulation, decentralization and public interest looks better in autumn, the bear market may be over but unless none of them changes dramatically there is no reason this centralized coin - owned by some whales - has a future.
Note
Touched the upper Resistance Channel of a tighter 3hours downwards Channel twice - once at 2am and the second one just minutes ago. Both (small and weak) attempts rejected.Note
Note
Still inside the descending triangle. Could move up now towards 3520$ and then down again. I think will see a decision in the next 24 - 48 h.Order cancelled
Btc broke out to the upper side. Ltc pumped heavy and Btc and others followed - had a nice 300$ move. Bought my shorts back around 3500 some hours before the pump because the performance of Ltc scared me - was the right decision. Now taking some profit and waiting for the next signs.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.