Bitcoin Crawls Up An Ending Diagonal To Give Resistance A High 5
Updated
Hello Traders,
I have been staring at the charts for a while now and I believe Bitcoin is in a 5th wave ending diagonal and is approaching the end of this rally. The 2.618 extension of wave 1 is $6460 on Bitfinex and $6250 on coinbase.
We have the weekly 100MA above us which will act as hard resistance.
Whats interesting about this rally is we cleared the weekly 50MA which did not happen in the last market cycle. I suppose it would be too easy if the price followed exactly the same course as last time. As we are now above the 50MA we have to take this into consideration as it will have an interaction with the price on the way down.
As far as a retrace is concerned, I think a lot of people were expecting BTC to drop back down to find support on the 200MA and downtrend line (like last time) and then bounce off but I am not so sure this time around. These waves look like a nice clean set of impulse waves to me, not a strange looking corrective ABC pattern. Because wave 1 retraced a lot (0.786 / 0.854) then wave 4 will not. A bounce on the 0.5 or 0.618 retrace fib is most likely. I think the 50MA is going to start bending down again as we drop and could possibly be a bouncing support for BTC. Notice I have put an Elliot Wave failure point in there as well, breaking that would be a bad move for BTC and suggest we go lower. I also have a fib time tool on the chart which seems to line up nicely to a 41-44 day dump like wave 1 did which keeps the consistency through these waves.
I have been staring at the charts for a while now and I believe Bitcoin is in a 5th wave ending diagonal and is approaching the end of this rally. The 2.618 extension of wave 1 is $6460 on Bitfinex and $6250 on coinbase.
We have the weekly 100MA above us which will act as hard resistance.
Whats interesting about this rally is we cleared the weekly 50MA which did not happen in the last market cycle. I suppose it would be too easy if the price followed exactly the same course as last time. As we are now above the 50MA we have to take this into consideration as it will have an interaction with the price on the way down.
As far as a retrace is concerned, I think a lot of people were expecting BTC to drop back down to find support on the 200MA and downtrend line (like last time) and then bounce off but I am not so sure this time around. These waves look like a nice clean set of impulse waves to me, not a strange looking corrective ABC pattern. Because wave 1 retraced a lot (0.786 / 0.854) then wave 4 will not. A bounce on the 0.5 or 0.618 retrace fib is most likely. I think the 50MA is going to start bending down again as we drop and could possibly be a bouncing support for BTC. Notice I have put an Elliot Wave failure point in there as well, breaking that would be a bad move for BTC and suggest we go lower. I also have a fib time tool on the chart which seems to line up nicely to a 41-44 day dump like wave 1 did which keeps the consistency through these waves.
Note
Looks like a cup and handle in the making here. Note
The ending diagonal looks a bit better on the Coinbase chart. Note
Wave 3 inside this diagonal might be in. Breaking then holding 6k will look bullish. Note
BTC Coinbase disrespecting the wedge shape here. Note
Its getting very close to the 100MA now. Note
Looks like we have had a throw over here. was not expecting that to happen. Note
Right, that was one of the most mental things I have seen yet lol. A lot was learned here. Firstly I didn't know a throw over (if that is what actually happened) could have started such an insane pump. Second, on Bitfinex the price was first rejected at the 2.618 extension which is where the 100MA was which is where you would think the wave would end. But no it kept going. Being above the 2.618 and 100MA moved it up. On coinbase the price wicked perfectly on the 3.618 extension at $7400 but didnt get that high on Bitfinex. That felt like proper FOMO near the top there with a parabolic move. Shorts got destroyed. Note
This could be wave B of this retrace. 
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