After a impulsive move down BTC overextended and bulls bought it back up immediately. 3875 resistance which is also the bottom of wave 1 was rejected. This means that another wave down is likely. However, fifth waves can be shorter and a double bottom or a higher bottom is possible (truncated fifth). My first target is the bottom of the parallel channel & the .61 fib retracement of the leg up. I will be closing half of my position here. If BTC overreacts again the 5th wave could go extended but with all the buying pressure below the channel i dont see that happening very often.
Other possibilities is that we just finished the ABC correction and this is our leg 1 up with more up to come, but i find it difficult to make this scenario work in the current price action. Another possibility is that the surge upwards was a X leg, which happens inbetween complex corrections. after this usually follows either a triangle or another ABC taking us even lower. The X leg can go to up to 4220 before initiating the next correction. My stop loss is above this level.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.