Short

BTC Daily - Elliot Wave idea

Updated

I never plan to be exact, feeling the bias downwards still.
Loose plotting, not made to be exact and definitely not feeling like the math plotting.

There is a notable threat for a possible large spike upwards (28k-ish) continuing said mini-bull run that's is currently stalling out. There are such resistant diagonal lines on the chart along with major horizontal resistance lines. Price-Action will be stopped by one of those five.

Basically another Run chart to see if PA is in a downwards Elliot Wave.

Note

I have a screen shot of the 4 hour as it shows more than the Daily. l use the Daily so the chart can still be used for years later, vs, a 4 hour chart that is good for about 6 months, at which point the old data will not feed it.

What's going on, we have reached the #5 position, there is a possibility of a hyper-extension of any last Elliot Wave leg.

A trader would need to monitor indicators to see if the short is still in play.

MACd indicator: 1 Hour, 2 Hour, 3 Hour & 4 Hour are all showing a Bearish Divergence and the Daily is in an upwards trend because of it's last Bullish Divergence.

RSI & same type indicators: 1 hour, 2 hour & 3 hour are all showing a trending for upwards push, however the stronger longer 4 hour and Daily are downwards bound and exhausted.

With that said, This would be the point where shorting is good, earlier as the 4 hour was bending downwards, was the opportune timing to go short.
Price is already 2.5% from the recent spike.

Note

What's going on? Price Action had a Change of Structure, basically PA is not really following this chart's PA idea. Keep monitoring for DIV set-ups. Guess where price might go. I think we are in a temporary bullish PA run. Price still should fluctuate downwards overall.

Order cancelled

It's obvious from the picture above that chart idea failed.
It makes sense to do the math on Elliot waves, so an early conclusion like my example doesn't repeat itself, I should have deleted and not published, however a great example like this is another learning lesson.

I went ahead and did the math for the large purple lined size Elliot Wave on the chart. Here's the math from some web resource, however this is correct yet not extended math factors for legs, I have decided to use this math for now for fun and curiosity.

Different waves in an Elliott Wave structure relates to one another with Fibonacci Ratio. For example, in impulse waves:

Wave 2 is typically 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of wave 1

Wave 3 is typically 161.8% of wave 1

Wave 4 is typically 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3

Wave 5 is typically inverse 1.236 – 1.618% of wave 4, equal to wave 1 or 61.8% of wave 1+3

wave 1 = 3,208
wave 2 = 1,647 = 51.3% of #1 wave (passes)
wave 3 = 4,897 = 167.3% & 152.6% of #1 wave (passes & fails)
wave 4 = 2,591 = 48.3% & 57.3% of #3 wave (fails x2)
wave 5 never got long enough, however at the time of doodling this fast look-see chart was to determine if we were in an Elliot Wave in that area.
We are not, math failed early on. I also moved the 3, 4 , 5 points out a little further to catch the different extended low and new high developed, and that is the other % added in ... that Elliot Wave also failed the math.

Quartz-

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