Updated

BTCUSD - Bitfinex

Self explanatory.

I think BTC will touch the 8.2k line. I don't know what will happen after that.

Factors which may bring the price lower (even lower than 8.2k):
1. More 'regulations' announced by South Korea.
2. Regulations yet to be announced by Russia.
3. CBOE's six applications for ETF being refused. Major american banks are still against BTC at this time.
4. China banning mining of all cryptos. 80% mining removal will delay transactions beyond the point of repair. That will probably induce a potential multi-month to multi-year bear market.

Factors which may boost the price up (above 20k to 30-50k range):
1. ETF approval.
2. Lightning network enablement.
3. Power efficient ASICs release.
4. Other positive developments.

Trade with care and caution.

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I look at these images and then at BTC charts....

imgur.com/a/HCH2G

imgur.com/a/CLaCQ

And I compare them to 2014...

Scary.....

Or may be too much FUD...

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Just a guess, but I think we will soon start to see the sea-saw pattern between BTC and BCH-BTG again. This should start as soon as coinbase enables BCH OTC trading at its main interface page, i.e. not GDAX.

Since BTG rides on the shoulders of BCH, BTG price should also go up and down with it. I think BTC will move up and down for a while, and then will bring down both BCH and BTG with it.

BTC is still within the downward trend channel for me. If it crosses the red line, I would still look at other indicators to double confirm the uptrend. Also, keeping an eye on the coindesk, cryptocoinsnews and cointelegraph news is a good idea.

For me, the most important one is this one. My reason for this are my own and I do not prefer to discuss with anyone. Please do your own research before coming to a conclusion and making a trading decision.

coindesk.com/israeli-finance-watchdog-seeks-ban-public-firms-bitcoin-trading/

I wish everyone a happy new year. May God bless us all! :)

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Wait and observe. We still have a lot of room to move before an uptrend is confirmed.

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I should have noticed this before. BTC is basically moving between the fib lines created between $10700 and $16494 for now.

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observing closely...

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Breakout!

RSI indicates overbought state. Wait for some correction before entering.

Also look for other signs of a trend reversal. We do not want to be caught in a bull-trap.

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I am not suggesting anything.

There is a classical H&S pattern here.

Also, both of these news are playing a role.

Trade with caution still.

I am going to focus on alt coins in my list. What happened today? alts pumped first - with NEO and ETH achieving ATHs and then BTC pumped around $1800 in less than 120 minutes hours later whilst alts fell. Normal????

In the news:

cnbc.com/2018/01/02/bitcoin-rises-after-report-says-early-facebook-investor-peter-thiel-is-buying-massive-amounts.html

coindesk.com/south-korea-sets-date-for-anonymous-crypto-trading-ban-report/

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My persona cut-off for BTC/USD is 16.5k. If it goes above it, I would take that as a trend reversal.

I am more focused on IOTA and Streamr/DATAA at this time. I have high hopes for both of them.

Also Coinbase should open OTC BCH trading soon, which should raise the price. Others such as GNT, QTUM, QASH, and SNT should be monitored closely.

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One of my friend said to me many months ago "when Dogecoin gets to 1 cent value, the market will be in a true bubble state".

???

:)

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Be extremely careful now.

The CBOE ETF approval b SEC seems pretty much unlikely. BTC will probably plunge when SEC announces they have refused the ETF applications filed by CBOE.

reuters.com/article/us-usa-sec-bitcoin/sec-warns-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-investors-at-risk-idUSKBN1ET1YI

uk.businessinsider.com/r-us-sec-warns-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-investors-at-risk-2018-1?r=US&IR=T

thehill.com/policy/finance/367428-sec-warns-cryptocurrency-investors-of-rampant-illegal-trading

Also:

cointelegraph.com/news/wall-street-buzz-merrill-lynch-bans-bitcoin-for-its-clients

coindesk.com/merrill-lynch-bans-clients-from-investing-in-bitcoin-fund/

coindesk.com/south-korea-sets-date-for-anonymous-crypto-trading-ban-report/

Be very careful.

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Additionally, regarding China banning bitcoin mining:

coindesk.com/report-pboc-quashes-rumor-it-would-shutter-chinas-bitcoin-mines/

Please read the whole article.

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16.5k was my cut-off.

For now it looks like BTC is heading to 23k-25k target. Then another (healthy) correction to 16k-18k.

Over the coming weekend (i.e. 7th-8th January 2018) perhaps a mini-correction to $15.5k... or not...

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17.2k to 15.7k.. meh... normal correction.... should go back to 17k+ within the next 2-3 hours

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On second thought... BTC can theoretically test the support at 13k level again....

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Possible Head & Shoulder formation here...

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Leaked document in China about a 'stepwise exit' from mining:

qz.com/1174091/china-wants-an-orderly-exit-from-bitcoin-mining/

BTC and BCH are going to be most vulnerable to this.

Whether this affects IOTA and XRP later remains to be seen. ETH, LTC, NEO and other GPU mined coins (which depend mostly on community mining) may or may not survive (what is about to come in case this document is not a hoax).

Be careful.

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And yet some more for fuel the FUD:

news.vice.com/en_us/article/59w5eb/china-is-about-to-kill-nearly-all-bitcoin-mining-operations-in-the-world

engadget.com/2018/01/08/china-to-curtail-bitconi-mining/

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coindesk.com/viabtc-announces-shutdown-of-crypto-mining-contract-market/

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coindesk.com/more-bitcoin-futures-etf-proposals-withdrawn-after-sec-pushback/

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cnbc.com/2017/12/28/bitcoin-drops-11-percent-as-south-korea-moves-to-regulate-cryptocurrency-trading.html

coindesk.com/south-korea-reportedly-expands-crackdown-bitcoin-exchanges/

cnbc.com/2018/01/09/north-korea-hackers-create-malware-to-mine-monero.html

coindesk.com/korean-official-cryptocurrency-exchange-ban-not-finalized/

Let the dust settle first. Trade at your own risk... if you must.

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Another potential head and shoulder formation (pointing downwards) on the 5 min chart:

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BTC has failed to move above the 50-day Moving Average line. The dotted line represents the price level which BTC needs to break first (within the next 24 hours) and then also break the $17k barrier within the next 72 hours for a true bullish trend reversal.

As always, when BTC falls, almost all of the altcoins fall with it.

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Forgot to add this:

There is no true volume support either. Once again, I think we are looking at what BTC went through between 12th June 2017 till 16th July 2017.

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Both 10-day and 50-day MA lines are now converging over the candles.

Once again, I think we will see a pattern similar to what we saw between 12th June 2017 and 16th July 2017.

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And here we go:

2 more today:
coindesk.com/pboc-official-calls-for-wider-ban-on-chinese-crypto-trading-report/

metro.co.uk/2018/01/15/france-declares-war-cryptocurrencies-bitcoin-ethereum-litecoin-ripple-tough-new-stance-lead-ban-7231339/

10.9k hit already on Bitfinex.

Next is 8.2k. Provided ETF does not get refused. Otherwise 3-5k....

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A recap from my original post at the beginning:

"Factors which may bring the price lower (even lower than 8.2k):
1. More 'regulations' announced by South Korea.
2. Regulations yet to be announced by Russia.
3. CBOE's six applications for ETF being refused. Major american banks are still against BTC at this time.
4. China banning mining of all cryptos. 80% mining removal will delay transactions beyond the point of repair. That will probably induce a potential multi-month to multi-year bear-market".

1 and 4 have already happened. Additionally, France adding regulations/banning all crypto trading (in the news today). ViaBTC has already increased mining prices and other cloud mining services are likely to increase the price too.

IF ETF GETS REFUSED??? That's my only worry now. If not, then we are all good to go up after touching $8000 ($7000-$9000 region).

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Keep monitoring the chart though. The crash may happen sooner (and faster) than we think. Personally, I have a deadline of 20th January.

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Okay. BTC managed to push every coin (Apart from USDT/tether - understandably) down.

But is BTC done falling?

I think we need to wait for a few more days. The buy volume on BTC is still so low that it almost feels like a normal mini-crash.

And aim for your favorite coins when BTC is at 8.3k.

IOTA, NEO, ETH, QTUM and possibly XRP or whichever you fancy.

Unless ETF approval is rejected (which in my opinion now has a 50/50 chance).

IF BTC gets to 8.3k, I think we may possibly see these prices:

IOTA - $1 to $1.5 - a spike below $1 is possible.
XRP - $0.3 - $0.6 range
ETH - $500-$750 range
NEO - $40-$80 range (wide range - very high demand now, but spikes can happen)

Just be careful though. Nothing is certain in the crypto world.

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The South Korea game... more to come today

ccn.com/south-korea-considering-shutting-cryptocurrency-exchanges-rinse-repeat/

coindesk.com/report-south-korea-considers-closing-all-cryptocurrency-exchanges/

Can go up fast if the SK gov says 'not now'. Can go down harder and faster if they say 'no to all exchanges'.

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Coinbase/GDAX weekly chart with medium to long term support lines for 2018-2019.

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Price has gone up by around $2700.... but where is the volume???

Or is XRP taking all the credit for this?

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And now about SEC's decision on BTC ETF. This is giving a signal:

coindesk.com/sec-outlines-reasons-for-reluctance-to-list-cryptocurrency-etfs/

Also, this just in:
coindesk.com/pboc-reportedly-orders-payment-services-to-stop-serving-crypto-traders/

Will the cryptomarket enter the capitulation phase in the valuation cycle?

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Another possible H&S formation. MACD and RSI in line with H&S formation. Be careful.

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Heading there!

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express.co.uk/finance/city/907786/bitcoin-price-india-cryptocurrency-trading-btc-exchange

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AAAAND there you can see it now. Head and shoulders completed.

Also 9k or even 8k incoming over the next 48 hours I think.

Reason:
english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2018/01/22/0200000000AEN20180122002200320.html

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Spot the difference...

IF BTC crosses 11.7k, it is likely that it will go to retest the 14k downtrend descending line (joining 19.9k - 17k) this time. If not, then likely it may test the support zone. Observe, wait, watch, or trade. Do your own diligence please.

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No idea if this is real or fake, but it looks the real one to me. Found it on twitter.... shared online everywhere now....

imgur.com/a/2LHr2

SOOOO.... Dogecoin is superior to BTG.... I don't think I need to say anything else.

AND where is IOTA in this one????

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A better one...
imgur.com/a/ZcSKA

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Final update for this chart. I am working on another one now.

This link is the biggest clue.

coindesk.com/sec-cftc-chiefs-set-senate-crypto-hearing-next-week/

1. I think both Bitfinex and Tether will face a lot of scrutiny over the next few weeks. This can lead to a disaster crash and may mimic the one that happened in 2014.

2. SEC is probably going to refuse ETF applications next week.

People are saying the BTC's price is crashing secondary to India's regulation?

Think again...

G20 summit in Argentina is next month, i.e. March. All G20 countries will be sending their central bank governors to discuss the matter of cryptocurrencies.

Do not take this as a doom scenario. This is going to the a huge opportunity to buy cheap cryptos at some point.

BTC is entering capitulation phase.

This is my personal view. I have been wrong before. But so far, I think I have been right mostly.

P. S. After today's meteoric dip, I do expect some recovery, at least a few hundred dollars for BTC. This should also raise the price of all top tier coins.

2018 will be the year of ETH, NEO, IOTA, XRP and QTUM. I don't know much about Stellar, but it looks good too.

EOS in my view is overhyped.

UnknownUnicorn995432

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UnknownUnicorn995432