Thread: Has BTC Bottomed?
Updated
Hey All,
Welcome to another year of crypto. 2022 was full of bears and shocking developments in the space! 2023 has promise to be much better in terms of price growth.
It's been nearly a year since I last posted on TradingView and for good reason. My last 4 analysis' were warning of the bearish year to come and it turned out to be just that. (please refer to the related ideas below for an overview of them).
Some signs have started to print that the crypto markets have been severely reset and may be soon experiencing a trend change. There has been little to no revival for most of the markets since highs were set over a year ago.
While looking at the above chart, two white trends can be seen which create a channel like structure. Each time price has hit either trend, a strong reaction has occurred and often a significant bottom or top formed. Right now, BTC is laying on the bottom trend.
The area has other confluence as well. There is a major support zone here. BTC has just bounced off its 2000 day bottom trend line for the sixth time.
Any break below the bottom trend and into the major support zone can be catastrophic. $12,000 would likely be the next support area . $10,000 is a level that cannot break. If it does, crypto will be sent on a wild ride with nearly all important technical points void. This is a very unlikely scenario.
Below I have added a few technical points to highlight a well rounded view.
Thanks for reading
Please like and comment!
Welcome to another year of crypto. 2022 was full of bears and shocking developments in the space! 2023 has promise to be much better in terms of price growth.
It's been nearly a year since I last posted on TradingView and for good reason. My last 4 analysis' were warning of the bearish year to come and it turned out to be just that. (please refer to the related ideas below for an overview of them).
Some signs have started to print that the crypto markets have been severely reset and may be soon experiencing a trend change. There has been little to no revival for most of the markets since highs were set over a year ago.
While looking at the above chart, two white trends can be seen which create a channel like structure. Each time price has hit either trend, a strong reaction has occurred and often a significant bottom or top formed. Right now, BTC is laying on the bottom trend.
The area has other confluence as well. There is a major support zone here. BTC has just bounced off its 2000 day bottom trend line for the sixth time.
Any break below the bottom trend and into the major support zone can be catastrophic. $12,000 would likely be the next support area . $10,000 is a level that cannot break. If it does, crypto will be sent on a wild ride with nearly all important technical points void. This is a very unlikely scenario.
Below I have added a few technical points to highlight a well rounded view.
Thanks for reading
Please like and comment!
Note
1 Week LMACD (logarithmic) has hit the same support zone that has provided a bounce in the past.
Note
The relative strength index (RSI) on a 2 week chart has hit and been stable at the same zone the last 3 bottoms occurred at.
Note
The 1 week chart has printed a massive bullish divergence. So simple, yet so effective in crypto. This has a 90% accuracy rate of providing a decent size bounce in the direction it points.
Note
BTC transactions fees seem to show bear markets. Right after fees break the uptrends formed throughout the bull market, price reverses. If you look to the current, we have started ticking up which occurs while a bullish trend change is occurring.
Note
Using the stock to flow ratio, we can see this shade of orange has occurred two other times in history and it marked a multi year bottom.
The shades are based on the time since the last halving and this shade of orange occurs around the 750th-800th day since the previous halving.
Note
This indeed looks to be the cycle bottom! I expect consolidation between 19k and 48k until April 2024! 
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