Bitcoin Daily Update (day 304)
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
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*Using Weekly Chart*
Consensio: P < M MA < S MA < L MA | S MA made first bullish cross with M MA since July and it appears to have immediately reversed.
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel
Horizontals: $3,500 support being tested | R: $3,592
Trendline: Channel is included on today’s chart
Parabolic SAR: $5,170 and accelerating down rapidly
Futures Curve: Backwardation is only reason I am not short.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Consolidating at support. Will we get higher low or not?
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01% | Very surprised that longs are paying shorts after the last couple days.
TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip
Ichimoku Cloud: Bearish af
Relative Strength Index: Finding resistance at 38.
Average Directional Index: Shows that bear trend has only just begun. Estimate that we are on the 50 yard line.
Volume: Not all too impressed with the volume on the selloff. Would like to see a bar that is closer to the volume we saw on the week of Nov 19.
Price Action: 24h: -2.1% | 2w: -7.9% | 1m: +9.1%
Bollinger Bands: Didn’t even retest MA on this last move. Bottom band = $2,572
Stochastic Oscillator: Made bearish cross < 20 which is as bearish as it gets
Summary: This is a very tricky spot. The daily close below $3,550 support combined with the weekly bearish engulfing is a strong indication to enter short. However the futures market is still in backwardation and I refuse to enter short as long as that is the case.
I got whipped around too many times shorting BTC during $6,000 consolidation and I could have avoided every one of those entries if I used the futures curve as my final confirmation.
That is the most important indicator to me right now and I will be watching it closely. If the market re enters Contango then I intend to start shorting again. I am as confident as could be that we have not seen the bottom yet, however I also thought this would be an ideal area to provide the support needed for a relief rally.
Therefore both sides of the trade are appealing. Great time to sit on my hands and wait for a clearly picture to present itself.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
*Using Weekly Chart*
Consensio: P < M MA < S MA < L MA | S MA made first bullish cross with M MA since July and it appears to have immediately reversed.
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear Channel
Horizontals: $3,500 support being tested | R: $3,592
Trendline: Channel is included on today’s chart
Parabolic SAR: $5,170 and accelerating down rapidly
Futures Curve: Backwardation is only reason I am not short.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Consolidating at support. Will we get higher low or not?
Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01% | Very surprised that longs are paying shorts after the last couple days.
TD’ Sequential: Bearish price flip
Ichimoku Cloud: Bearish af
Relative Strength Index: Finding resistance at 38.
Average Directional Index: Shows that bear trend has only just begun. Estimate that we are on the 50 yard line.
Volume: Not all too impressed with the volume on the selloff. Would like to see a bar that is closer to the volume we saw on the week of Nov 19.
Price Action: 24h: -2.1% | 2w: -7.9% | 1m: +9.1%
Bollinger Bands: Didn’t even retest MA on this last move. Bottom band = $2,572
Stochastic Oscillator: Made bearish cross < 20 which is as bearish as it gets
Summary: This is a very tricky spot. The daily close below $3,550 support combined with the weekly bearish engulfing is a strong indication to enter short. However the futures market is still in backwardation and I refuse to enter short as long as that is the case.
I got whipped around too many times shorting BTC during $6,000 consolidation and I could have avoided every one of those entries if I used the futures curve as my final confirmation.
That is the most important indicator to me right now and I will be watching it closely. If the market re enters Contango then I intend to start shorting again. I am as confident as could be that we have not seen the bottom yet, however I also thought this would be an ideal area to provide the support needed for a relief rally.
Therefore both sides of the trade are appealing. Great time to sit on my hands and wait for a clearly picture to present itself.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
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