What are the Leveraged Longs doing in Bitcoin?
One of the most interesting things to develop in Bitcoin last year during the summer dip to 30k was that leveraged long positions inexplicably rose as price consolidated.
Under normal conditions traders tend to chase returns and increase leverage as the price rises. This was typical of the first half of 2021 as Bitcoin pushed to higher highs. It would follow that on the May 2021 dip leveraged longs would be liquidated, sentiment would become less risk on, and leveraged longs would decrease. The opposite happened. Leverage increased and continued increasing through the dip and further into the consolidation. At the end of the consolidation when price rallied the leverage began to evaporate away suggesting it was being closed out.
At the time this was happening last summer I saw a major structural weakness in the price of Bitcoin if price broke 30k as it would jeopardize the leveraged longs being liquidated into a major crash. I gave a talk at a local Bitcoin meetup titled "Do they get to win?" insinuating that this was a risky move that could end badly. Turns out, they did get to win. In hindsight I have a new take on the event. The leverage was coming into the market to support the price and keep it from falling further.
Now, when I revisit this indicator I see that leverage is once again increasing rapidly into a falling price. It is not just "buying the dip" but in my mind "supporting the dip not going further."
Do they get to win again?
Under normal conditions traders tend to chase returns and increase leverage as the price rises. This was typical of the first half of 2021 as Bitcoin pushed to higher highs. It would follow that on the May 2021 dip leveraged longs would be liquidated, sentiment would become less risk on, and leveraged longs would decrease. The opposite happened. Leverage increased and continued increasing through the dip and further into the consolidation. At the end of the consolidation when price rallied the leverage began to evaporate away suggesting it was being closed out.
At the time this was happening last summer I saw a major structural weakness in the price of Bitcoin if price broke 30k as it would jeopardize the leveraged longs being liquidated into a major crash. I gave a talk at a local Bitcoin meetup titled "Do they get to win?" insinuating that this was a risky move that could end badly. Turns out, they did get to win. In hindsight I have a new take on the event. The leverage was coming into the market to support the price and keep it from falling further.
Now, when I revisit this indicator I see that leverage is once again increasing rapidly into a falling price. It is not just "buying the dip" but in my mind "supporting the dip not going further."
Do they get to win again?
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Discord Trading Community: discord.gg/eDfhKvS5AC
Youtube: youtube.com/c/NoroksNotepad
Twitter: twitter.com/noroktrade
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