BTC at Key Support
What Key Support?
We are again at the 0.618 - 0.65 FIB retracement zone, which is the MOST important FIB zone for BTC. Whether this zone holds is crucial to where BTC could reach in 2020.
When to enter?
1. Timing: Now - Christmas
Historically, we often see better market performance in December compared to the other eleven months. Why?
- It's time for big sales as traders ditch losing positions for tax write-offs
- Portfolio managers bid more aggressively in the market to end the year with better performance reports
2. Use RSI MAs
We are still a big fan of using RSI holding/failing its MAs as signals for entering heavier positions. And this type of pattern is always magnified when it happens at MA crossovers.
What could 2020 BTC halving do to BTC price?
We all know that the next halving will happen in May 2020. Given the still heated discussion around whether 4k is the bottom or we are going to drop below 1k, we do think the key resistance zone at 14k needs to be tested before we break to the upside. This will lead to several months of consolidation in the 7-14k zone. Similar to the 80% price pump before the July 2016 halving, we may see a speculative effect in March - April next year, breaking above the 14k resistance. (The less of a speculative effect before the November 2012 halving may be due to the digital asset’s lack of media attention at the time.) This same type of "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior has occurred numerous times in the crypto space, leading by the BTC future trading launch on CME and CBOE . BTC price increased more than 300% prior to the actual launch, followed by the 2018 and 2019 crypto winter.
Goodluck Trading!
We are again at the 0.618 - 0.65 FIB retracement zone, which is the MOST important FIB zone for BTC. Whether this zone holds is crucial to where BTC could reach in 2020.
When to enter?
1. Timing: Now - Christmas
Historically, we often see better market performance in December compared to the other eleven months. Why?
- It's time for big sales as traders ditch losing positions for tax write-offs
- Portfolio managers bid more aggressively in the market to end the year with better performance reports
2. Use RSI MAs
We are still a big fan of using RSI holding/failing its MAs as signals for entering heavier positions. And this type of pattern is always magnified when it happens at MA crossovers.
What could 2020 BTC halving do to BTC price?
We all know that the next halving will happen in May 2020. Given the still heated discussion around whether 4k is the bottom or we are going to drop below 1k, we do think the key resistance zone at 14k needs to be tested before we break to the upside. This will lead to several months of consolidation in the 7-14k zone. Similar to the 80% price pump before the July 2016 halving, we may see a speculative effect in March - April next year, breaking above the 14k resistance. (The less of a speculative effect before the November 2012 halving may be due to the digital asset’s lack of media attention at the time.) This same type of "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior has occurred numerous times in the crypto space, leading by the BTC future trading launch on CME and CBOE . BTC price increased more than 300% prior to the actual launch, followed by the 2018 and 2019 crypto winter.
Goodluck Trading!
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