BTC - Crimbo shakeout
Updated
Timing changes to this bearish scenario.
Scenario forecasted initial price to move down in the near-term over the seasonal holidays and beyond - watching for a breakdown as we near Christmas. It would be bad form to occur on happen Christmas day.
Scenario centres on historical Market Top interplay:
- The yellow line emulates (broadly) historical tops and interaction with 50wk MA (or relative timeframe MA)
- Tops are sometimes though of as a parabolic spike then collapse of price but this is rarely the case (within relative timeframes).
- Tops are often drawn out affairs and while they are not clear distribution patterns like rounded tops they are offloading all the same.
- Supportive evidence are the US and INDIA equity market examples below that were forecasted to break down.
- The timings of the strategy relies on TA and herd mentality - Typically BTC sees a rally around Christmas.. or a 'Santa Rally'. Hypothesis is that market leveraging a traditionally strong December and selling into retail while forming a false falling wedge. Omicron is certainly a concern for people but scenario assumes this as a smokescreen for markets.
Entry Targets based on horizontal support structures. Estimates are:
Long Entry
41K targeting Short Entry at 
49K in Jan
LE 28k Feb targeting SE at41K in March
LE 21k to ride market growth in May
Best, Hard Forky
Bear market initiated?
(Assumed) top of US markets back in late November - Target Hit.
Approach to top of Asia markets (INDIA) back in June 2021 - Target Hit.
Scenario forecasted initial price to move down in the near-term over the seasonal holidays and beyond - watching for a breakdown as we near Christmas. It would be bad form to occur on happen Christmas day.
Scenario centres on historical Market Top interplay:
- The yellow line emulates (broadly) historical tops and interaction with 50wk MA (or relative timeframe MA)
- Tops are sometimes though of as a parabolic spike then collapse of price but this is rarely the case (within relative timeframes).
- Tops are often drawn out affairs and while they are not clear distribution patterns like rounded tops they are offloading all the same.
- Supportive evidence are the US and INDIA equity market examples below that were forecasted to break down.
- The timings of the strategy relies on TA and herd mentality - Typically BTC sees a rally around Christmas.. or a 'Santa Rally'. Hypothesis is that market leveraging a traditionally strong December and selling into retail while forming a false falling wedge. Omicron is certainly a concern for people but scenario assumes this as a smokescreen for markets.
Entry Targets based on horizontal support structures. Estimates are:
Long Entry
41K targeting Short Entry at 49K in JanLE 28k Feb targeting SE at
41K in MarchLE 21k to ride market growth in May
Best, Hard Forky
Bear market initiated?
(Assumed) top of US markets back in late November - Target Hit.
Approach to top of Asia markets (INDIA) back in June 2021 - Target Hit.
Note
Long scenario to counter my bearish bias
Note
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