For the last 3 weeks I've been telling people and showing time and time again that my analysis was correct, that we are heading to the $17k-$20k on account of the Heads and Shoulders neckline that was broken 3 weeks ago (white line). Surprisingly even though my analysis was shown to be correct over time, over and over, I only get about 2 likes per post. Then I see someone post a sideways wedge pattern with an arrow pointing up and it gets 5+ likes.
Now this is not facebook, so I don't care about being popular, but it is annoying to tell everyone that the sky is blue and have most people insist that it is green instead.
More recently on Friday I told everyone that the green circled weekly candled closed just on the neckline, and the yellow circled weekly candle (last week) started and will be ending below the neckline - which is the first weekly candle to do so - which is a very bearish sign. Then I went camping and returned to see a total of 2 likes. Wow - I guess people really enjoy losing money.
Anyway, it's not easy being the fish that swims in the opposite direction, you have to occasionally get into arguments with people. There was one guy whose name begins with "R" who even said that BTC doesn't follow technicals unlike gold. WHAT?? That guy spent so much time doing silly angel patterns that have no established reliability and more people liked his posts too.
This is so ridiculous. Obviously one can surmise what is going on here. People want the price to go up, so they are just liking posts that say the price is going up, regardless of merit. Don't do that! No-one learns from misinformation. Dumber traders will see a bunch of likes and conclude it must be right. Like good analysis, not just ones in your own echo chamber.
The one analysis that I was looking out for that said the opposite of what I was saying are posts that talk about shorts and longs accumulating on Bitfinex. A few days ago the shorts plunged and the longs just spiked to 53k today, and the trader pointed that out as a bullish sign. Hmm... I don't know about that. From the last time I saw a MASSIVE short stop resulting in a gigantic green candle occurring in real time, the shorts were much higher than the longs - which makes sense, to have a massive short stop you would need a lot of shorts, not a little. Well now we have the opposite happen with a ton of longs, and very little shorts - doesn't that indicate that a LONG STOP is about to occur? We'll see - I don't trade based on shorts vs longs, but I watch. You should watch too: does a whole bunch of longs and a small amount of shorts contribute to a bullish market or a bearish market? let's see together.
Why is it important for the majority to agree with me? Because it is important in charting to prove that you're wrong, not prove you're right. The problem is that not many people were charting in any way that was very convincing. It was trying very hard to grasp at straws and show a bullish turnaround that just wasn't there. So I wasn't learning anything that could prove me wrong. But now that most agree now that we are bearish - I can hopefully learn from more people of when we are going to turn around again. It is important not to miss the start of that Wave 5 upward!
In the next day or 2, I expect the price to bounce around the blue bar before continuing downward. Good luck - and listen to the guy who says the opposite of what you want to hear! That's the number 1 lesson I learned during 2018.
Finally, I will link to the reliability of established patterns that you should know and understand:
samuraitradingacademy.com/7-best-price-action-patterns/
.. someone said that we can't possibly know that the price will go down to $17k-$20k with"85% reliability" - which surprised me. I thought others would have done research and known that certain patterns are in fact very reliable. The above link says the H+S pattern is 83% reliable, and not the 85% that I like to use - but 2% is beside the point - it is the MOST reliable pattern that we know. Don't use angel patterns or bat patterns blah blah, unless it is more reliable than an established pattern with a track record.
Now this is not facebook, so I don't care about being popular, but it is annoying to tell everyone that the sky is blue and have most people insist that it is green instead.
More recently on Friday I told everyone that the green circled weekly candled closed just on the neckline, and the yellow circled weekly candle (last week) started and will be ending below the neckline - which is the first weekly candle to do so - which is a very bearish sign. Then I went camping and returned to see a total of 2 likes. Wow - I guess people really enjoy losing money.
Anyway, it's not easy being the fish that swims in the opposite direction, you have to occasionally get into arguments with people. There was one guy whose name begins with "R" who even said that BTC doesn't follow technicals unlike gold. WHAT?? That guy spent so much time doing silly angel patterns that have no established reliability and more people liked his posts too.
This is so ridiculous. Obviously one can surmise what is going on here. People want the price to go up, so they are just liking posts that say the price is going up, regardless of merit. Don't do that! No-one learns from misinformation. Dumber traders will see a bunch of likes and conclude it must be right. Like good analysis, not just ones in your own echo chamber.
The one analysis that I was looking out for that said the opposite of what I was saying are posts that talk about shorts and longs accumulating on Bitfinex. A few days ago the shorts plunged and the longs just spiked to 53k today, and the trader pointed that out as a bullish sign. Hmm... I don't know about that. From the last time I saw a MASSIVE short stop resulting in a gigantic green candle occurring in real time, the shorts were much higher than the longs - which makes sense, to have a massive short stop you would need a lot of shorts, not a little. Well now we have the opposite happen with a ton of longs, and very little shorts - doesn't that indicate that a LONG STOP is about to occur? We'll see - I don't trade based on shorts vs longs, but I watch. You should watch too: does a whole bunch of longs and a small amount of shorts contribute to a bullish market or a bearish market? let's see together.
Why is it important for the majority to agree with me? Because it is important in charting to prove that you're wrong, not prove you're right. The problem is that not many people were charting in any way that was very convincing. It was trying very hard to grasp at straws and show a bullish turnaround that just wasn't there. So I wasn't learning anything that could prove me wrong. But now that most agree now that we are bearish - I can hopefully learn from more people of when we are going to turn around again. It is important not to miss the start of that Wave 5 upward!
In the next day or 2, I expect the price to bounce around the blue bar before continuing downward. Good luck - and listen to the guy who says the opposite of what you want to hear! That's the number 1 lesson I learned during 2018.
Finally, I will link to the reliability of established patterns that you should know and understand:
samuraitradingacademy.com/7-best-price-action-patterns/
.. someone said that we can't possibly know that the price will go down to $17k-$20k with"85% reliability" - which surprised me. I thought others would have done research and known that certain patterns are in fact very reliable. The above link says the H+S pattern is 83% reliable, and not the 85% that I like to use - but 2% is beside the point - it is the MOST reliable pattern that we know. Don't use angel patterns or bat patterns blah blah, unless it is more reliable than an established pattern with a track record.
Note
Terribly sorry - I mean SHORT SQUEEZE (not "short stop"), and "LONG SQUEEZE" (not "long stop"). Argh. Monday morning.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.