Bitcoin, forgone conclusion
Updated
Bitcoin has finally broken down and touched upslopping trendline by broking through 28,574 resistance.
In the left graph you can see Bitcoin 1D from end of December 22 to today, in the right graph, you can find the same time period, but from end December 18 to August 19, so also pre-halving year.
Although not exactly the same, they both present a strong impulse and a peak around June-July, after which price begins a slow bleed. Price back in 19 was way more volatile.
Note that fundamentals of Bitcoin network have not changed, daily transactions have been actually climbing steadily during the past months. On the other hand, the market has become substantially thinner, with record low volumes. Although summer is not a good month for Bitcoin ,the dry-up of volume has been disproportionately strong.
I do not know why volume has dropped so much. As simple speculation, maybe in part, exchanges are cutting back in wash trades as they see regulation is coming their way, so they want to clean house before having to open their books to external auditors and regulatory agencies.
I know many people in crypto are hostile to the idea of regulation, but the truth is, what virtually all exchanges are doing nowadays is a complete clown show. Securities are traded through an exchange or broker-dealer, a custodian, a central securities depository and a clearing agency. This makes things actually safe and predictable for investors. Currently, all those things are being done single-handedly by the crypto exchanges. That's why FTX happened.
I expect the price to decline in the coming weeks. I would advise everyone to have a cold shower before booking any longs during these days, unless you are doing some quick intra-day or intra-hour trades, as it may not surprise me price breaking down suddenly again.
Once price begins retracing after this drop, I see a short at swing low at 28,300, in case it gets to get that high at any point (although I doubt it will, at least in the short time).
My expectation is that things will start to really turn around in December aprox. Will bulls release the Kraken for Bitcoin next year? We'll see.
Good luck to all
In the left graph you can see Bitcoin 1D from end of December 22 to today, in the right graph, you can find the same time period, but from end December 18 to August 19, so also pre-halving year.
Although not exactly the same, they both present a strong impulse and a peak around June-July, after which price begins a slow bleed. Price back in 19 was way more volatile.
Note that fundamentals of Bitcoin network have not changed, daily transactions have been actually climbing steadily during the past months. On the other hand, the market has become substantially thinner, with record low volumes. Although summer is not a good month for Bitcoin ,the dry-up of volume has been disproportionately strong.
I do not know why volume has dropped so much. As simple speculation, maybe in part, exchanges are cutting back in wash trades as they see regulation is coming their way, so they want to clean house before having to open their books to external auditors and regulatory agencies.
I know many people in crypto are hostile to the idea of regulation, but the truth is, what virtually all exchanges are doing nowadays is a complete clown show. Securities are traded through an exchange or broker-dealer, a custodian, a central securities depository and a clearing agency. This makes things actually safe and predictable for investors. Currently, all those things are being done single-handedly by the crypto exchanges. That's why FTX happened.
I expect the price to decline in the coming weeks. I would advise everyone to have a cold shower before booking any longs during these days, unless you are doing some quick intra-day or intra-hour trades, as it may not surprise me price breaking down suddenly again.
Once price begins retracing after this drop, I see a short at swing low at 28,300, in case it gets to get that high at any point (although I doubt it will, at least in the short time).
My expectation is that things will start to really turn around in December aprox. Will bulls release the Kraken for Bitcoin next year? We'll see.
Good luck to all
Note
So yes as I mentioned, Bitcoin could break down at any moment, I was thinking in the next days, it took 30 mins instead lol
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