Short

Bitcoin Short Term

Updated

Bitcoin hitting $ 48 - 50k local top. Once BTC ETFs get approved, BTC will sell off and go through a correction. Likely bottom at around $ 34 - 38k. This will probably mark the ultimate bottom. Bitcoin bull run will commence in October / November 2024. This is when BTC will break ATH.

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Last update. 50 % chance BTC local top may be in. If so, BTC probably going down to $ 32 - 34 k.

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Both targets have been met. $ 49.1k target and then went down to $ 38.5k. BTC has now breached $ 50k. I believe BTC will probably revisit $ 43 - 44k. If that line doesn't stand, BTC will probably go below $ 38.5k, most likely all the way down to $ 32k. If $ 43 - 44k line stands, then BTC probably won't go below 40k ever again.

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If BTC ever closes above 50k, then BTC will head to $57 - 62 k first. Then a 35+% correction will follow. BTC's path should become more clear within a few days from now. Currently heading to the 43 - 44k range seems more likely as BTC hasn't had a candle close above $ 50k+.

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Looks like we are heading to 57- 62k.

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Most likely BTC won't go above 60k. At the moment, my target is 58 - 59k.

In terms of corrections that will follow after this parabolic move, I believe it would be either low 40k range or mid 30k range. so if 42 - 43k gets broken down, then BTC is heading down to 34 - 36k. I actually think there is a quite high chance that we revisit 34- 36k, with even a wick down to 32k, as when a parabolic move breaks down, usually there is a 40+% correction. Spot ETFs won't be able to stop this price correction, as it would be derivative markets tanking BTC price with cascading liquidations happening and leverages / loans getting wiped out from the market.

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Selling pressure is way too weak right now. Probably hodling behavior is too strong. Reaching 61- 62 k seems quite doable. Also, I think 60k should be broken for aggressive long leverage positions to pile in, which will trigger a market correction.

60 - 62 k is an extremely strong resistance. At least a 15 % correction from that point is almost guaranteed, which will break current parabolic structure, which will bring down to at least low 40k range, which is 42 - 43k. Mid 30k range is also very possible (34 - 36k)

During 2013, people knew nothing. During 2017, people were too pessimistic with goal post and it took a lot of people by surprise. During 2021, people were too optimistic and BTC never reached 100k.

Currently, I think the market is divided into two groups. Those who are too pessimistic and those who are too optimistic.

I think BTC will hit the middle ground. From my perspective, hitting around 60k and correcting to anywhere between 32 - 43k seems most likely.

FYI, back in December, I was also being too careful and had set many of altcoin price targets too low. Since then I have made adjustments, upping price targets aggressively.

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I consider 53k to be a weak resistance. However, just in case BTC drops below 50k, then BTC is probably headed down to 32k.

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with less than 18 hours left before daily candle close, I don't think BTC will go below 50k as this is a weekend candle with very little trading volume. so I'm sticking with my 57 - 62 k target. will likely get there before the end of this month.

also just found out that there is a very strong resistance at around 59k. So it's 50/50 whether BTC goes above 60k. right now, I am more leaning toward not crossing 60k. so something like 59.4k is my target.

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ETFs buying $ 200 million on average per day, 5 days per week. That is $ 1 billion per week, $ 4 billion per month. Not sure how long this purchasing power can last, but I think it will go on for at least another month. Plus, current parabolic structure is still in tact. So, I'm still sticking with my upper target. I think 59 -61k seems most probable.

If BTC indeed reaches my target, I think another correction should be expected. We are about to have 6 straight monthly green candles. This has happened only twice in the past 10+ years. Right now, I am expecting a red candle in March. While I have mentioned 32 - 43k as my target, I will probably aggressive buy even if 43k is reached. Assuming my prediction plays out, 60k -> 43k is already a near 30% correction, and I would be totally content with a 30% correction. Also, there is no guarantee we go below 40k.

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If BTC's daily candle closes above 63k, then I believe BTC is headed straight to 80k+. However, right now I see that happening as quite unlikely. If BTC somehow manages to reach 80k, then that is the ultimate end for this parabolic move, and BTC would go through a guaranteed 50 % correction, flushing out all the leverages down till 40k. It would take at least 6 months for the price to fully recover.

Breaching 60k seems very likely though. My target is 61k and I anticipate a strong rejection between 60 - 62 k range.

My plan right now is to sell the majority of my portfolio when BTC breaks above 60k and wait out and see how things go. If BTC goes above 63k, I will buy back. If BTC goes below 44k, I also buy back.

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Seems like BTC's local top was 64k.

Daily candle close above 63k, BTC resumes going up. Else, I do think bitcoin will likely go through a 30+% correction. 32k is technically possible, but could be a stretch target as ETFs inflows are quite significant. 44k on the other hand seems quite possible.

if a daily candle close below 60k candle doesn't happen within a day or two from now, the above plan needs to be reevaluated.

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Seems like the drop from 64k has failed to trigger a correction as BTC is currently at 61.3k and the overall selling pressure seems to have died out.

BTC might try another leg up to 65 - 66k to break 60k. If this drop fails to trigger a correction, there is actually a quite high chance BTC goes to 80k.

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if Sunday candle closes below 62.4k, BTC is getting a correction. else BTC goes to 65k+. so probably we will figure out where BTC is going in around 27 hours.

ETFs inflows have slowed down significantly on Friday marking a net negative flow of 140 million usd. This is the largest outflow since the inception of BTC ETFs. Monday's ETFs inflow data should give a clearer picture, but if another outflow happens on Monday, probably BTC is going down to the 43k range or below.

So probably another 27 hours left to enjoy the last safe risk free mini alt season.

FYI, I think PEPE/BONK/FLOKI local top is in now. this also makes me lean more toward BTC getting a correction. rather than going to 65k. if BTC heads to 65k, these meme coins could put in another top, but I don't think it will be significantly higher than the current top. for example, PEPE could go up to 0.0000055, while current top is at around 0.000005. so only like 10% more from current high. Also, it feels like BTC dominance is bottoming and readying for another leg up.

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FYI, BTC has not had a single candle that close above 63k right now for the past 4 days. This also makes me more bearish with the current BTC movement.

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It looks like BTC is headed to 80k.

Also, I change my stance. PEPE/BONK/FLOKI tops are not in. They are going up much higher.

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If BTC indeed reaches 80k+, I anticipate a very strong correction as the current parabolic structure is destined to be broken. the drop should be at least 30% with 40 - 50% very much possible. so a drop to low 60k is pretty much guaranteed, with reaching 40 -50 k range also very possible. it should take 2 - 6 months for BTC to fully recover its price (80k) depending on how steep the correction is.

With the current parabolic structure still in tact, I anticipate BTC to get to 80k within a week or two from now. Soo 80k by the end of this week is very possible.

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This is how I would play this market.

Just hold BTC and sell when BTC reaches 80k+. If you are currently holding PEPE/BONK/FLOKI, I would hold them till BTC reaches 80k+. If you are buying meme coins right now, the risks might be too high, though I do believe they will be going up higher along with BTC.

Now when BTC reaches 80k+, I believe there will be around a 15% mini correction. Buy alt coins that haven't gone up a lot during this mini correction. Hold them for 5 - 7 days and sell them.

Alt coins that I think will shoot up after this mini correction are the ones that haven't recovered at least 70% of the previous 2021 ATH prices. Just a few examples are NEAR, AVAX, SOL, WAVES, AXS, NEAR, etc. There are a ton of them.

After having sold alt coins, now, wait for BTC to get down to at least 57 - 60k while keeping in mind that BTC correcting all the way down to 42 - 43k is a possibility, though there is no guarantee. So one plan is to have cash ready for 60k, 57k, 52k, 48k, 42k price ranges. and start buying back BTC along with other alt coins that have been stagnant. STX, SEI, BLUR, SUI are just a few of them.

FTM also looks quite good at the current price 0.628. Not sure if it can reach 1.00 when BTC heads to 80k. but I think it will should reach at least near 1.00 this month.

Again, I think 80k BTC by the end of this week is very possible. I am anticipating 80k by the end of next week at the latest.

FYI, these are just my personal opinions. DYOR. Also, things can always change. I have been constantly changing my BTC price target for that past two weeks.

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I think BTC will not be able to touch 80k. 78.5k is my new target.

If 80k is breached and BTC stays above 80k for at least 3 days, then the next target would be 96 - 98 k. That target would be reached before the third week of March. I would place less than a 5% chance for BTC to hit 96 - 98 k.

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I think BTC could hit 78.5k within 24 hours.

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Seems like meme coins are losing steam and topping out.....

ETF inflows are still looking good, but BTC seems to be struggling a little bit right now.

Also BTC is struggling to break ATH. In 2016, BTC was at 2013 ATH, yet corrected 30% and took around 6 weeks to successfully break above it...

I would actually take a more conservative view right now. market has gotten too overheated with meme coin crazy pumps ...

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I think BTC will break ATH this month. However, now I am not so certain BTC will bring PEPE/FLOKI/BONK with it. While I do believe they will 10x or more from the current price when BTC goes to 130k+, I do think some corrections are necessary for these meme coins.

This doesn't mean selling them, as it is possible they can 2x again from the current price. However buying them at the current price would be extremely risky.

A lot of dormant coins are awakening right now. so I think considering how much market has gotten overheated right now, it might be safe to buy coins that seem to have a break out imminent structure rather than those that have gone parabolic already. FTM and AXS are just a few examples that I think will give an easy 30 - 50% gain within a week or two from now.

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PEPE/FLOKI/BONK local tops seem to be finally in.

While BTC has broken ATH, it has corrected around 10% too. Not sure if this is the mini correction that I've mentioned previously that brings an alt season. However, coins that have held well should the ones worth looking into right now. SOL and NEAR have held well. so have FTM and AXS. I actually think it might be safer to hold these tokens than BTC right now.

In general, coins that were popular in 2021, but haven't recovered at least 50 -60% of the 2021 ATH seem to be the safe ones to buy right now.

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seems like BTC local top is in

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So buying pressure is still strong. Probably ETF inflows / buys coming from Coinbase. This makes corrections feel different for this cycle. Also, BTC's parabolic structure is still in tact.

However, we did get a correction 15% after market got overheated.

I think holding BTC seems like the best strategy right now.

Short term wise I think BTC will try to touch 66k. If we get an alt season along the way, there is a high chance 69.2k is a local top and we are getting a 30+% correction. However, breakdown of the current parabolic structure would need to be confirmed to make a conclusive decision as this cycle feels somewhat different.

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BTC is at around 63.8k

After looking at various data, I believe BTC is headed to at least 78k. So I will be sticking with this target with a high conviction rate. The exact target price is either around 78k or 81k. So I will using the lower limit, which is 78k. The deadline for reaching 78k is the same as I have mentioned previously, at the latest by the end of next week, with BTC reaching 78k by the end of this week still very possible. After 78 - 81k is reached, current parabolic structure will break down and a 30%+ correction is guaranteed.

Today's correction seems to just a mini leverage flush.

Not sure what will happen with PEPE/FLOKI/BONK. My best guess is they likely put in another ATH, however probably 30% above current ATH not like another 2x, though I could be totally wrong. If you are still holding them, I think it would be a good idea to keep holding them.

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BTC price is recovering fast. I think 78k will be reached by the end of this week.

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seems like PEPE/BONK/FLOKI will 2x again.

a portfolio that consists of just PEPE/BONK/FLOK/SHIB/DOGE will be probably one of the top performing ones for the next 7 days.

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Coins that have break out structures seem to be going up along with AI coins. In terms of the coins that have break out structures, NEAR is moving up. I believe FTM and AXS will follow soon. For AI coin, ORAI, RNDR, FET are all breaking out.

For meme coins, I change my stance. I'm really not sure what it's going to do right now. They feel like they are topping out, however they should run up when BTC breaks out again. I still have a high conviction that BTC will go to 78k by the end of next week at the latest, though now I am no so sure whether that can happen this week. If BTC doesn't break out this week, I think memecoins' parabolic structures will break down fast

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BTC touched 70k. 78k should be reached by early next week, probably before the end of next Wednesday..

meme coins are going up again. SHIB/FLOKI should get to 2021 ATH within a week. PEPE also will probably 2x from the ATH before it had a mini crash. Not sure about BONk, but it should do fairly well too.

Probably another alt season this weekend. Now. I think it's actually not that risky to buy meme coins. PEPE/FLOKI breaking out while SHIB seems to be readying for a break out. FLOKI seems to be a day a head of SHIB.

FTM seems to be nearing an end of its parabolic run. should go to 1.00+ by the end of this week. AXS will probably break out today.

Small cap coins all doing well. NAKA, CUDOS, ORAI, LMWR, TOKEN would be some of my picks.

Once FTM, and AXS shoot up, I think it would be wise to rotate capital into ARB, MINA, AVAX. I think those are the last ones waiting for break outs. After that, I think BTC gets a correction. Probably this is when to exit all meme coins. In terms of timeline, I think BTC gets a correction within 2 weeks from now.

FYI, if you are a high risk taker and currently holding BTC, selling BTC and buying meme coins and holding for the next 5 - 6 days might be a good idea. Yet DYOR.

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BTC at 72k. BTC target revised to 79 - 81k by the end of this week.

AVAX and MINA have broken out. FTM taking longer to reach 1+. AXS, SAND not done yet.

VET and HOT seem readying for a major break out with at least a 15%+ daily gain.

Meme coins still not done yet. Once SHIB breaks out and gets to 2021 ATH, I think BTC will correct, anticipating it to happen next week. ETH breaking 2021 ATH would be another BTC correction signal.

As previously mentioned, I do have a final target of 96 - 98k happening within a week after 79 - 81k is reached. Giving this around a 5% chance right now. 96 - 98k should be the last possible target and BTC can't go beyond without a 30%+ correction.

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A lot of people seem to be targeting 80k range as a local top. This makes me wonder whether BTC can actually reach 98k and surprise a lot of people.

I do think that there will be a correction at 79k, but it could end up being like the mini leverage flush that we had a week ago where BTC dropped from 69k to 59k.

A daily candle close above 82k will confirm that BTC is headed to 98k.

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SHIB likely readying for a breaking out within a week. probably 3 - 5 days of sideways movements, then should break out with a price target aiming for 2021 ATH.

BTC ETF inflows are quite significant. I think 98k target is actually quite possible. I would give it a 50 percent chance. If this is the case, there will likely be a leverage flush correction at 79k, resulting in a 8 -10k drop followed by a quick recovery.

Still whether it's 79k or 98k, I do think BTC starts correcting this month, probably near late March. Not a financial advice, but I do think it would be wise to exit all meme coins when SHIB reaches 2021 ATH and probably even some portion of your portfolio.

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