BTC likely to break down
Updated
Though it would be a shorter recovery than from the last three drops, it appears that BTC is about to break down again.
Lower highs and lower lows over the past days shows BTC trending down toward the bottom of the channel (i.e., bear flag).
A 4-hour candle closed with a red 2 trading below a red 1 on the TD Sequential. A drop below 5980 today would give us a red 2 below yesterday's red 1.
Bollinger bands are narrowing on the daily and 4 hour, which recently has predicted a sharp drop. Volume is dropping off sharply. Shorters have taken profits, and long positions are rising rapidly. This is a perfect set-up for a long squeeze. Those who are long may want to keep stops close.
I would be surprised to see prices above 6275, and even 6200 seems like an increasingly distant possibility. A break above 6350 could take it to 6600 quickly. A break above 6850 would invalidate this bearish outlook.
Yesterday I took profits on shorts and have already partially reopened higher. The price has been mostly frozen and sensible stops are far up from the current price, so new shorts have a poor risk-reward. I'm waiting for clearer signs to open more short positions. A breakdown below 6000 could take us to the 5400-5600 quickly, where I would expect a bounce--perhaps no higher than 6000.
Lower highs and lower lows over the past days shows BTC trending down toward the bottom of the channel (i.e., bear flag).
A 4-hour candle closed with a red 2 trading below a red 1 on the TD Sequential. A drop below 5980 today would give us a red 2 below yesterday's red 1.
Bollinger bands are narrowing on the daily and 4 hour, which recently has predicted a sharp drop. Volume is dropping off sharply. Shorters have taken profits, and long positions are rising rapidly. This is a perfect set-up for a long squeeze. Those who are long may want to keep stops close.
I would be surprised to see prices above 6275, and even 6200 seems like an increasingly distant possibility. A break above 6350 could take it to 6600 quickly. A break above 6850 would invalidate this bearish outlook.
Yesterday I took profits on shorts and have already partially reopened higher. The price has been mostly frozen and sensible stops are far up from the current price, so new shorts have a poor risk-reward. I'm waiting for clearer signs to open more short positions. A breakdown below 6000 could take us to the 5400-5600 quickly, where I would expect a bounce--perhaps no higher than 6000.
Trade active
Added more shorts at 6100 and 6000 before the drop, which appears to have slowed. I have taken profits on half of my shorts and will look to add more on a bounce.Trade active
After taking profits at 5800 because the decline slowed, I booked shorts between 6300 and 6500. These are currently under water, but I am confident they will soon be well into profit. TD Sequence on the 1 hour shows a red 2 below a red 1. Volume is dropping sharply. Tuesdays have the highest probability of weekly low.
Bulls are overleveraged, with longs climbing. Many TV ideas, Tweets, and Telegram chats are loaded with exuberance, despite seeing lower lows and lower highs over the past 3 weeks.
Zooming out or looking at longer timeframes makes clear that it is too early to assume the downtrend has reversed. Support above 6850 would start to change my mind.
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