Hello guys. I first want to be grateful for my two must influential posters in trading view, MagicPoopCannon and Botje, you guys rock.
Now, this is my own analysis. I will keep it super short and simple. My favorite indicator is the Stochastic, it is very accurate, mostly in higher timeframes. Stochastic is my favorite indicator for high frequency trading and has helped me become profitable on 4 of every 6 trades.
I have circled the previous 4 times where the Stochastic has been in similar levels where we are today. The result is that every time we reach this levels we start a 2-4 week correction movement. On EACH correction movement followed by this pattern BTC moves from 30% to 70% DOWN. Remember each candle represents a 1 week period.
For those people that want to profit from high volatility bounces I suggest you to follow me, I will be posting hidden supports and resistance levels where we can profit 2-4% instantly once we touch those levels. For those who are more patient and just want to play it less risky I suggest you keep in mind the following.
EMA 50 (Blue): We see that EMA 50 is just 36% below the current candle which perfectly matches the 30-35% correction in the past 4 times where STOCH has been in the current levels. I am more than sure that so many people will get fooled and there could possibly be a panic sell which could possibly drive the price down to the black trend line around the 3k area. However that will happen if we break the solid support level around the 5k area (red horizontal line).
I just graduated from Finance Masters and my greatest learning was to distribute the risk in options trading. I never place 100% or my order in one price. I hedge my positions most of the time. For this scenario I am placing 75% of my order at the EMA 50, 10% in the re horizontal line, and 5% at the black trend line.
Also RSI is highly overbought. Most of you guys are excited, I have read a lot of bullish TA saying that we can possibly hit 10k or 9.5k but in my case, I am giving up that little upside potential and don't risk myself to remain stuck in the -35% movement for the next month.
Many are excited that AT&T is accepting Bitcoin now but in the end of the day they don't care about holding the BTC, they will dump their BTC when they feel they need those profits in USD so this is not a really bullish news like many people think. We need to learn how to be bullish and bearish at the same time. Faith is good, but we need to hedge and distribute our risk, and make Statistical decisions.