Hi everyone,
These are very interesting hours / days looking at bitcoin chart, and a challenging one to decide.
This is an idea sharing how I think, by any means it is not a financial advice!
I'm personally very cautious right now and restrict doing anything (I would short for fun & profit only when convinced, btw I'm looking for a stable investment point to ETH to go long :) ), so I'm not in a rush.
In my very first post, about my long-term strategy looking for a good point to invest (you can read here: tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/o00ZWIi3-Bitcoin-daily-34-37k-or-24-26k-where-the-consolidation-ends/), I pointed out that a confirmed break above the main down trendline would invalidate my bearish bias, waiting for more correction to come.
Last 24H price action was very bullish, carving up to 51900, so I decided to dig deeper and check if this is really a bullish proof, or a fake out preparing a bull trap.
Let's see what I'm expecting to see
Breakout PRO's:
- intense price action has a chance to pull the price up further, e.g. to 53-54k
- local volumes pushing through resistance levels are awakening (basically, any thousand between 49k and 53k is one to fight, and so far it succeeded :D)
Breakout CON's:
- Indicators, shown in my first article are still not healthier (especially volumes on daily+ timeframes)
- Global markets still in distress, no confirmation yet about a finished correction
Bull trap PRO's:
- Wedge is forming (see blue wedge lines)
- Strong resistance ahead until 53k
- Indicators, volume, etc..
- Feb-May fractal repeating still not invalid, check my puzzle below
Bull trap CON's:
- Tick-tack, price action reverse and selling power needs to appear shortly, no sign of the pullback just yet.
So my advise would be for traders to wait for confirmation to both directions before trading.
My BIG Fractal puzzle:
The BIG trick: Check the extended wedge with white lines, and look at it, from the point marked with yellow circle, and follow this:
WHAT IF, bitcoin wants to hide an already finishing fractal completion, making the same confusion as it made with Aug 26 and Sept 1 lows? -> so where to count the bounce in-between? To the downtrend, or to the uptrend? Before Sept 7 fall, there was no proper 3-waves up by Elliot Wave rules, staring from Sept. 1. But it worked when you count from Aug. 26, with the very strange, 80%+ retracement for the first wave.
So WHAT IF, the same trick happens now?
In this case, ones following the fractal might be already behind their counting of lows and highs:
While price action is distorted to both downs and ups being larger since Sept 7, we can't close out that the drop at the end of the fractal is happening.
Watch out, I hope you enjoy this bitcoin "puzzle" as much as I am. ;D
Cheers,
Antonio
These are very interesting hours / days looking at bitcoin chart, and a challenging one to decide.
This is an idea sharing how I think, by any means it is not a financial advice!
I'm personally very cautious right now and restrict doing anything (I would short for fun & profit only when convinced, btw I'm looking for a stable investment point to ETH to go long :) ), so I'm not in a rush.
In my very first post, about my long-term strategy looking for a good point to invest (you can read here: tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/o00ZWIi3-Bitcoin-daily-34-37k-or-24-26k-where-the-consolidation-ends/), I pointed out that a confirmed break above the main down trendline would invalidate my bearish bias, waiting for more correction to come.
Last 24H price action was very bullish, carving up to 51900, so I decided to dig deeper and check if this is really a bullish proof, or a fake out preparing a bull trap.
Let's see what I'm expecting to see
Breakout PRO's:
- intense price action has a chance to pull the price up further, e.g. to 53-54k
- local volumes pushing through resistance levels are awakening (basically, any thousand between 49k and 53k is one to fight, and so far it succeeded :D)
Breakout CON's:
- Indicators, shown in my first article are still not healthier (especially volumes on daily+ timeframes)
- Global markets still in distress, no confirmation yet about a finished correction
Bull trap PRO's:
- Wedge is forming (see blue wedge lines)
- Strong resistance ahead until 53k
- Indicators, volume, etc..
- Feb-May fractal repeating still not invalid, check my puzzle below
Bull trap CON's:
- Tick-tack, price action reverse and selling power needs to appear shortly, no sign of the pullback just yet.
So my advise would be for traders to wait for confirmation to both directions before trading.
My BIG Fractal puzzle:
The BIG trick: Check the extended wedge with white lines, and look at it, from the point marked with yellow circle, and follow this:
WHAT IF, bitcoin wants to hide an already finishing fractal completion, making the same confusion as it made with Aug 26 and Sept 1 lows? -> so where to count the bounce in-between? To the downtrend, or to the uptrend? Before Sept 7 fall, there was no proper 3-waves up by Elliot Wave rules, staring from Sept. 1. But it worked when you count from Aug. 26, with the very strange, 80%+ retracement for the first wave.
So WHAT IF, the same trick happens now?
In this case, ones following the fractal might be already behind their counting of lows and highs:
- Yellow circle: April 26. 1 AM UTC
- Green circle: April 29. 6 AM UTC
- Purple circle: May 6. 11 AM UTC
- Pink circle: May 8 or May 10 peak
While price action is distorted to both downs and ups being larger since Sept 7, we can't close out that the drop at the end of the fractal is happening.
Watch out, I hope you enjoy this bitcoin "puzzle" as much as I am. ;D
Cheers,
Antonio
Note
Today there was a crazy price action, not really fitting into the above mentioned fractal theory. This is something else, but something very weird, as it looks like.I decided to NOT FOMO in, as there are crazy signs everywhere:
- Global distress still not solved
- Long positions falling
- 1000+ bitcoin holder reduced bitcoins today, while 1000- holders increased.
It would be a very, very evil distribution move if price would fall in a few days, I don't want to spread FUD but I think this is not the market where I want to buy anything atm. WDYT?
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.