Long

BTC contn to find support above light-blue long-term trendline.

Updated

Resistance turned support.
I am short term bullish biased now.
Longer-term bullish if it is able to pierce above the purple VPVR level and break out above the yellow ascending channel and finds support above.

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Bearish if it falls back below the light-blue trendline.
Note ichicloud presently in a bearish phase at this timeframe, but appearing to be narrowing.
Will continue monitoring PRISM Oscillators Set as well as Cyber Ensemble (CyEsm).

CyEsm doesn't work as well at this timeframe (forgot to turn it off) -- works better at the 3hrly timeframe (or for extremely short timeframe trading, i.e. 1,3,5,15,30mins, etc. during volatile periods).

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Sign of weakness: BTC unable to pierce and hold above the purple VPVR level

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Dynamic support above 200 VWMA on the 15mins so long as market remains short-term bullish. BUY signal presently triggered on Cyber Ensemble with price just above the 200 VWMA, suggesting that it will continue to hold for now.

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"likely" that is ..

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[CAUTION FOR THE BULLS]
Bearish signals emerging though...

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Lower but still longet-term timeframe (12hourly):

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Far-longer term zoomed out market structure still looking bearish unless BTC somehow breaks and hold above 8020 USD VPVR level. For now, BTC still have to break up above the 7260 USD VPVR level.

Just need to remind and caution myself.
Need to constantly set and update cost-averaged stoplosses, at appropriate levels, to protect and lock in profits.

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S&P 500 is still looking bearish, and I believe it will go up further to retest the 200 SMA before dumping down much lower. This is in line with the bearish view for BTCUSD just posted in the update right above as well. Have BTCUSD decoupled with the traditional markets? I really doubt so -- weak-hands I believe have and are FOMOing into the market now, and ready to panic sell once the traditional market tumbles again. There are quite a number of bullish arguments for BTC decoupling though from a fundamental perspective -- i.e. the incoming halving, excessive money printing by the FEDs, difficult to find and buy physical gold now but only paper gold (which may or may not actually be backed by real gold and can be confiscated on a wimp if the government say so, on the premise of "saving a collapsing economy") -- just look at what history tells us >> goldsilver.com/blog/gold-confiscation-history-myths-and-real-solutions/

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*If BTC do drops below 5k USD, I am gonna start *considering* loading up (looking out for signs of recovery first as usual rather than trying to catch the falling knife).

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Note the AB=CD target is not an absolute target, but what I believe to be a possible potential trajectory endpoint, provided if bullish conditions continues to hold (including on BTC, which is in turn, coupled with the traditional markets for now with more weak-hands FOMOing back in after the stock market pumped)

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^^ Shorter/more-immediate timeframe AB=CD considerations.

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Turns out the bearish AB=CD case is invalidated.
Biased towards the bullish AB=CD scenario now within the next two weeks.
Entry if price breaks above purple VPVR line and holds.

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A bullish perspective to explore:

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Adjusted Bull Flag measured move:

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Bullish breakout above the long-term yellow ascending channel imminent?

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Pierced above the top of the ascending channel and appears to be holding on the 1hrly. Will need to wait for it to close above on the daily or 2daily chart.

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Finally, after the second try, BTC successfully broke out higher above not just the ascending channel but above the 200 daily SMA as well! Need to wait to see if it will close above.

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A look at the PRISM Oscillators Set:

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