Hi, I'm updating this Idea based on the hourly. As noted in a previous Idea, this overlays an example of a stop hunt / trap. I also noted that when Iast saw this trend I got it wrong and the trap trend failed and the market dropped a lot deeper! That's probably because I'm a novice so just highlighting the possibility rather than a forecast.
The reason I'm thinking this trend is now valid is that in November and December we saw great gains with little consolidation thus there are only a few, concentrated price areas and they are weak, perfect for a trap. Also there is some nice FUD in the market about Death Crosses, etc to get the HODL crew selling.
I'm updating on an hourly as I think we are near the bottom* but there is another drop to come and it did not show very well on the daily. Yesterday I thought there maybe a 1,000 point drop based on the end of February event (Future/similar pattern) but I thought the big guy might leave the 7,000 mark for a month or two as bate for the next 5,300 target (everyone will see $7k as support) so I've held back from investing everything at 7,350- 7,400. My estimate is now 6,950 - yep, it will break the $7k mark as this is where many stops will be - My guess is that Mr Whaley owns those buy orders at the $7k mark and slip around the back to liquidise the small fry.
I'll be watching 12:30 CET tonight with some keen interest. I'm off on Easter break from tomorrow afternoon.. hopefully with the Futures folk/sharks ;)
* Bearish overall but expect a short term opportunity.
The reason I'm thinking this trend is now valid is that in November and December we saw great gains with little consolidation thus there are only a few, concentrated price areas and they are weak, perfect for a trap. Also there is some nice FUD in the market about Death Crosses, etc to get the HODL crew selling.
I'm updating on an hourly as I think we are near the bottom* but there is another drop to come and it did not show very well on the daily. Yesterday I thought there maybe a 1,000 point drop based on the end of February event (Future/similar pattern) but I thought the big guy might leave the 7,000 mark for a month or two as bate for the next 5,300 target (everyone will see $7k as support) so I've held back from investing everything at 7,350- 7,400. My estimate is now 6,950 - yep, it will break the $7k mark as this is where many stops will be - My guess is that Mr Whaley owns those buy orders at the $7k mark and slip around the back to liquidise the small fry.
I'll be watching 12:30 CET tonight with some keen interest. I'm off on Easter break from tomorrow afternoon.. hopefully with the Futures folk/sharks ;)
* Bearish overall but expect a short term opportunity.
Note
hit 6,980Note
time to go up for a bit once the buying is done. if it is buying now, a drop to $6k would not make sense right?Note
sell volume looks like it is normalisingNote
According to the overlay, after the second dip (now) we should go back to 7,300. If it drops below 6,666 i'm gonna get nervous!!!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.