Bitcoin contraction/expansion model

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Bitcoin seems to entered the contraction phase of the 3-phases master pattern. Which scenario looks viable now:

1. Given a slightly oversold RSI on 1H timeframe within the price contraction phase, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will expand upwards to hit the upper band of the major consolidation range ($8,500). At this point, RSI might show the bearish divergence signalling that the expansion phase has been completed on 1H timeframe. After that, the sharp move down to the lower band ($7,700 - $7,900) may follow. This scenario is assigned with a 60% probability.

2. There is a 40% probability that the recent contraction has a different nature and alternatively represents the correction inside the 5-steps upward impulse cycle. That means that the next impulse up may follow the correction. Whether the break-out of the consolidation range above $8,500 will be false or true is the matter of time.

Short-term trading strategy

* Scalp Buy is possible from $8,230 with the target at $8,500 & Stop-loss @$8,180.
* Short trade could follow after we see the price action at around $8,500.

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Disclaimer
This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any cryptocurrency or cryptocurrency product. Monfex accepts no responsibility for any consequences resulting from the use of this material. Any person acting on this trade idea does so entirely at their own risk.
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