BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 137)
Outlook:
1-5 days: bearish
6 days - 1 month: bullish
1 month - 6 months: bearish
6+ months: super bullish
Yesterday’s analysis: Waiting on the weekly 9, wondering if we will grind downward slowly, or get some capitulation
Patterns: 4hchart: Rejected bear flag. Bullish A-B-C-D pattern. Inverted h & s invalidated with move below $6,260
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,150 (do not expect it to support another retest) R: $6,250
BTCUSDSHORTS: Supported above trendline, currently going for a retest of 23,000 resistance where horizontal and trend lines wait. If it breaks through that area then I expect the next major sell off to follow. Would recommend keeping a close eye on this chart over the next few days.
Funding Rates: Shorts will pay 0.0229%
EMA’s (12 & 26): 12: 2.88% above price 26: 4.57% above price. Recent bullish crossover on 1h, posturing for crossover on 2h.
MA crossovers: 50: 8.66% above price 200: 45.60% above price. Bearish crossovers 15 min - 1d
FIB’s: 0.236 fib is at $5,817
Candlestick analysis: 3dchart & weekly: bearish engulfing and tweezer top 4hrchart: multiple dojis as bears attempt to turn $6,250 support into resistance.
Ichimoku Cloud: W: Price recently fell below green cloud. Recent bearish kumo twist. Bearish TK Cross. LS recently fell below price. 3D: Price below green cloud. Bearish kumo twist. LS below price. C Clamp is resolving itself. Daily: Price below red cloud, bearish TK cross, LS below price. Recently closed below Tenkan after it served as week support. 12hchart: recently fell out of red cloud and had a bullish TK cross - it is clearly confused. 6h: failed to stay inside cloud after getting a bullish kumo twist. Bullish TK cross, LS below.
TD Sequential: Monthly: red 4 Weekly: red 9 3d: red 1 1d: red 4 (threatening price flip)
Visible Range: heavy resistance at $6,500, wearing out support at $5,882 - $6,490
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +/- 0% 1d: +1.35% 1w: -5.54% 2w: -2.11% 1m: -4.86%
Bollinger Bands: flattening out and tightening on daily. 3d and weekly on lower half of band.
Trendline: Downtrend from triangle will be waiting at $7,500. Could drawn bull trend by using 6/29 and 7/12 on the daily chart.
Daily Trend: Bearish since 7/9
Fractals: Weekly - UP: $9,945 DOWN: $5,788 Daily - UP: $6,843 DOWN: $5,788
On Balance Volume: Large bull div in weekly. 3d shows flat volume since 2/6
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: Moving averages are a strong sell. Oscillators are neutral
“As for me, I have no desire to carry the football from end zone to end zone. Just give me the territory between the 20 yard lines.” PeterLBrandt
Yard line of trend:
Top: $19,776
Projected Bottom: $4,000
Field: $15,776 in length
87.15% of expected bear market is complete, therefore we are on the 13 yard line.
Conclusion: The TD Sequential is the most important indicator for me right now. Want a 9 on the daily to come on Wednesday the 18th and the red 9 on the weekly to close this Sunday. This is why I am bearish over the next 1-5 days.
I expect the price to fall to $4,500 - $5,000 by the 18th. If all three of those boxes get checked then it will be time to build a large long position. This is why I am bullish over the next 6 days - 1 month.
I do not believe this market has found a bottom and that is why I am still bearish for the next 1 month - 6 months.
1-5 days: bearish
6 days - 1 month: bullish
1 month - 6 months: bearish
6+ months: super bullish
Yesterday’s analysis: Waiting on the weekly 9, wondering if we will grind downward slowly, or get some capitulation
Patterns: 4hchart: Rejected bear flag. Bullish A-B-C-D pattern. Inverted h & s invalidated with move below $6,260
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,150 (do not expect it to support another retest) R: $6,250
BTCUSDSHORTS: Supported above trendline, currently going for a retest of 23,000 resistance where horizontal and trend lines wait. If it breaks through that area then I expect the next major sell off to follow. Would recommend keeping a close eye on this chart over the next few days.
Funding Rates: Shorts will pay 0.0229%
EMA’s (12 & 26): 12: 2.88% above price 26: 4.57% above price. Recent bullish crossover on 1h, posturing for crossover on 2h.
MA crossovers: 50: 8.66% above price 200: 45.60% above price. Bearish crossovers 15 min - 1d
FIB’s: 0.236 fib is at $5,817
Candlestick analysis: 3dchart & weekly: bearish engulfing and tweezer top 4hrchart: multiple dojis as bears attempt to turn $6,250 support into resistance.
Ichimoku Cloud: W: Price recently fell below green cloud. Recent bearish kumo twist. Bearish TK Cross. LS recently fell below price. 3D: Price below green cloud. Bearish kumo twist. LS below price. C Clamp is resolving itself. Daily: Price below red cloud, bearish TK cross, LS below price. Recently closed below Tenkan after it served as week support. 12hchart: recently fell out of red cloud and had a bullish TK cross - it is clearly confused. 6h: failed to stay inside cloud after getting a bullish kumo twist. Bullish TK cross, LS below.
TD Sequential: Monthly: red 4 Weekly: red 9 3d: red 1 1d: red 4 (threatening price flip)
Visible Range: heavy resistance at $6,500, wearing out support at $5,882 - $6,490
BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +/- 0% 1d: +1.35% 1w: -5.54% 2w: -2.11% 1m: -4.86%
Bollinger Bands: flattening out and tightening on daily. 3d and weekly on lower half of band.
Trendline: Downtrend from triangle will be waiting at $7,500. Could drawn bull trend by using 6/29 and 7/12 on the daily chart.
Daily Trend: Bearish since 7/9
Fractals: Weekly - UP: $9,945 DOWN: $5,788 Daily - UP: $6,843 DOWN: $5,788
On Balance Volume: Large bull div in weekly. 3d shows flat volume since 2/6
Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: Moving averages are a strong sell. Oscillators are neutral
“As for me, I have no desire to carry the football from end zone to end zone. Just give me the territory between the 20 yard lines.” PeterLBrandt
Yard line of trend:
Top: $19,776
Projected Bottom: $4,000
Field: $15,776 in length
87.15% of expected bear market is complete, therefore we are on the 13 yard line.
Conclusion: The TD Sequential is the most important indicator for me right now. Want a 9 on the daily to come on Wednesday the 18th and the red 9 on the weekly to close this Sunday. This is why I am bearish over the next 1-5 days.
I expect the price to fall to $4,500 - $5,000 by the 18th. If all three of those boxes get checked then it will be time to build a large long position. This is why I am bullish over the next 6 days - 1 month.
I do not believe this market has found a bottom and that is why I am still bearish for the next 1 month - 6 months.
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