A macro bottom on Bitcoin is either close or already in
Updated
- MAIN INFORMATION -
Everything that follows is merely a simple study and does not constitute financial advice.
Every first of the month, over the past few years, I take a look at a useful free indicator on the index chart of BTCUSD called "Accumulation/Distribution - with markers" to determine whether the slope is going up or down.
When the indicator goes up, BTCUSD is generally in a macro bullish trend, when it reverses, BTCUSD is in - or is soon to be in - a correction territory.
Keep in mind this is a monthly chart, and as far as I've witnessed, while I believe this analysis to be extremely valid on this timeframe, you'll find it losing its value on lower ones.
All four red lines plotted mark the beginning of a downwards movement of this asset.
The magnitude of each correction is measured from the close of the candlestick where the signal is fired off, to the wick of the following ultimate bottom.
When does the signal fire off?
On the candlestick closure matching the change in direction of the indicator, specifically in this case, when it reverses to the downside.
The point of this analysis is not to be able to sell the exact top of a bull market, so don't get distracted by the timing imprecision of the signal, although it's still generally fairly on point with such expectation in mind as well.
What brings us the most value here is the actual average retracement, that helps us to determine whether to look for a reversal to the upside relatively soon.
Note that while there still is no guarantee that BTCUSD has indeed put a macro bottom on November 2022, I included the current correction this asset is experiencing in the calculation of the average retracement.
Without taking this running fourth iteration into consideration, the result would be extremely similar, being a -69.08% instead of a -68.60%.
The ultimate point of this analysis is to be wary for when the indicator slope changes to the upside, which would signify a very high chance (technically 100% for now, but there are just four iterations available, so take that with a grain of salt) that the bull market is officially resuming, and another macro bottom is finally in.
- ADDITIONAL INFORMATION -
While I don't think it's necessary to turn this into a more complex study, if you wish to look for additional information, check out the YouTube channel "Eric Krown Crypto", he has a slightly different approach than mine on this matter but has a lot of valuable knowledge to offer.
I want to clarify that I'm not affiliated with the person running that channel, but I've learned a lot from him over the last four years, so I'm giving credit where credit is due, while - hopefully - helping you.
Everything that follows is merely a simple study and does not constitute financial advice.
Every first of the month, over the past few years, I take a look at a useful free indicator on the index chart of BTCUSD called "Accumulation/Distribution - with markers" to determine whether the slope is going up or down.
When the indicator goes up, BTCUSD is generally in a macro bullish trend, when it reverses, BTCUSD is in - or is soon to be in - a correction territory.
Keep in mind this is a monthly chart, and as far as I've witnessed, while I believe this analysis to be extremely valid on this timeframe, you'll find it losing its value on lower ones.
All four red lines plotted mark the beginning of a downwards movement of this asset.
The magnitude of each correction is measured from the close of the candlestick where the signal is fired off, to the wick of the following ultimate bottom.
When does the signal fire off?
On the candlestick closure matching the change in direction of the indicator, specifically in this case, when it reverses to the downside.
The point of this analysis is not to be able to sell the exact top of a bull market, so don't get distracted by the timing imprecision of the signal, although it's still generally fairly on point with such expectation in mind as well.
What brings us the most value here is the actual average retracement, that helps us to determine whether to look for a reversal to the upside relatively soon.
Note that while there still is no guarantee that BTCUSD has indeed put a macro bottom on November 2022, I included the current correction this asset is experiencing in the calculation of the average retracement.
Without taking this running fourth iteration into consideration, the result would be extremely similar, being a -69.08% instead of a -68.60%.
The ultimate point of this analysis is to be wary for when the indicator slope changes to the upside, which would signify a very high chance (technically 100% for now, but there are just four iterations available, so take that with a grain of salt) that the bull market is officially resuming, and another macro bottom is finally in.
- ADDITIONAL INFORMATION -
While I don't think it's necessary to turn this into a more complex study, if you wish to look for additional information, check out the YouTube channel "Eric Krown Crypto", he has a slightly different approach than mine on this matter but has a lot of valuable knowledge to offer.
I want to clarify that I'm not affiliated with the person running that channel, but I've learned a lot from him over the last four years, so I'm giving credit where credit is due, while - hopefully - helping you.
Note
Three months later, the indicator slope has finally changed its course to the upside, meaning that a macro bottom has likely been confirmed.
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