Why a 700K ATH Bitcoin is Technically realistically possible
At first glance, that is a crowed messy chart but once you understand it, it is very easy to read.
Also, I have only 2 sets of Cycle data to use as prior to 2013, PA worked very differently and it only entered the channel you see in 2013.
"Trends" shown by Trend lines take a minimum of 3 points to make it Valid, so all of what I am saying is very hypercritical BUT, as you will see, has some standing I believe.
So, Lets go.
The Day counts at TOP of screen are simply ATH to ATH
The 2 previous ones we have are in the 1400's day count and I used the average of those two to project forward to an estimated ATH date for 2025. This lands us in Q4, around 20 October...., maybe early Q4 but given it is an average, it could be either side of 20 October in real terms.
But it is a ball park to work from.
The REAL reason for this post is what we have below
Using the 50 SMA ( red) and 100 SMA ( blue ) I have counted the days between ATH and Cross overs of these SMA
The data is listed at the end as I know many will not read them but would rather get the reason for this post before hand..
But in brief - The Selling after ATH is getting stronger each cycle. This is shown by the day count from ATH to 50 SMA crossing below 100 reducing each cycle
The number of days where the 50 was below the 100 was reducing but the 2022 Bear cycle was extended by Macro events and influences like Rate Rises and so became extended.
However, over all, the Cycle remains on track due to quick recovery from a deep bear. Influences like ETF and Corporate acceptance are cercaintly responsible.
But it is this that has caught my eye
There are only 2 occasions where PA has come down and touched the Cross over of the SMA's
The 1st was in Dec 2019 ( Arrow A ) before PA began its climb to 1st ATH in March 2021 ( I am ignoring the March 2020 COVID Dump),
It Took 679 days from that point, to get to Cycle ATH in Nov 2021, Marked with an A on day count.
The 2nd was also in Dec, in 2023 ( Arrow A )
PA has acted differently than in 2020 but if we project the same day number ( A ) we had from that period, forward, It matches EXACTLY with the projected day count we had from above using ATH to ATH day numbers
And so then, using that date and the Trendline we have coming off previous ATH's, we end up with a potential ATH of around 700K usdt in Q4 2025.
I will add, the line graph appears to miss the Trendline but If I use Candles, they do touch, I assure you; A line is easier to use for Visibility here.
I will also ad that some may say that MA's are by nature, just reflections of PA. They are the Average of Price over a period of Time. And so of course we will end up with a same date. But as you can see from this chart, those Averages Vary and we do end up with different dates...
Lets list the date
ATH to 50 Cross Below 100
from 2013 ATH - 511 days
from 2017 ATH - 441 days = 70 daya lees
from 2021 ATH - 315 days = 126 days less
This maybe showing that the Sell off from ATH, as people take Profits, is getting more Rapid. Tjh eprice drop is getign Steeper
Then we have the day count where the 100 was Above the 50, or the "Bear winning"
After 2013 ATH - 399 days
after 2017 ATH - 301 days
after 2021 ATH - 448 days - I feel this was extended due to the deep bear market because od Macro events such as Rising interest rates and the consequences of these.
Next we have the days from where the 50 crosses back Above the 100 till we reach ATH
To reach 2017 ATH = 574 days
To reach 2021 ATH = 679 days - 105 days Longer
In yellow, I have included the day counts to the 1st 2021 ATH as some consider THIS to be the real cycle ATH But as I have shown in previous posts, there are reasons why this is not the case.
And Besides, it simply was NOT the highest price of that cycle.
I would love people opinion on this , so, if you have read this far, plwease let me know what you think
Thank you
Also, I have only 2 sets of Cycle data to use as prior to 2013, PA worked very differently and it only entered the channel you see in 2013.
"Trends" shown by Trend lines take a minimum of 3 points to make it Valid, so all of what I am saying is very hypercritical BUT, as you will see, has some standing I believe.
So, Lets go.
The Day counts at TOP of screen are simply ATH to ATH
The 2 previous ones we have are in the 1400's day count and I used the average of those two to project forward to an estimated ATH date for 2025. This lands us in Q4, around 20 October...., maybe early Q4 but given it is an average, it could be either side of 20 October in real terms.
But it is a ball park to work from.
The REAL reason for this post is what we have below
Using the 50 SMA ( red) and 100 SMA ( blue ) I have counted the days between ATH and Cross overs of these SMA
The data is listed at the end as I know many will not read them but would rather get the reason for this post before hand..
But in brief - The Selling after ATH is getting stronger each cycle. This is shown by the day count from ATH to 50 SMA crossing below 100 reducing each cycle
The number of days where the 50 was below the 100 was reducing but the 2022 Bear cycle was extended by Macro events and influences like Rate Rises and so became extended.
However, over all, the Cycle remains on track due to quick recovery from a deep bear. Influences like ETF and Corporate acceptance are cercaintly responsible.
But it is this that has caught my eye
There are only 2 occasions where PA has come down and touched the Cross over of the SMA's
The 1st was in Dec 2019 ( Arrow A ) before PA began its climb to 1st ATH in March 2021 ( I am ignoring the March 2020 COVID Dump),
It Took 679 days from that point, to get to Cycle ATH in Nov 2021, Marked with an A on day count.
The 2nd was also in Dec, in 2023 ( Arrow A )
PA has acted differently than in 2020 but if we project the same day number ( A ) we had from that period, forward, It matches EXACTLY with the projected day count we had from above using ATH to ATH day numbers
And so then, using that date and the Trendline we have coming off previous ATH's, we end up with a potential ATH of around 700K usdt in Q4 2025.
I will add, the line graph appears to miss the Trendline but If I use Candles, they do touch, I assure you; A line is easier to use for Visibility here.
I will also ad that some may say that MA's are by nature, just reflections of PA. They are the Average of Price over a period of Time. And so of course we will end up with a same date. But as you can see from this chart, those Averages Vary and we do end up with different dates...
Lets list the date
ATH to 50 Cross Below 100
from 2013 ATH - 511 days
from 2017 ATH - 441 days = 70 daya lees
from 2021 ATH - 315 days = 126 days less
This maybe showing that the Sell off from ATH, as people take Profits, is getting more Rapid. Tjh eprice drop is getign Steeper
Then we have the day count where the 100 was Above the 50, or the "Bear winning"
After 2013 ATH - 399 days
after 2017 ATH - 301 days
after 2021 ATH - 448 days - I feel this was extended due to the deep bear market because od Macro events such as Rising interest rates and the consequences of these.
Next we have the days from where the 50 crosses back Above the 100 till we reach ATH
To reach 2017 ATH = 574 days
To reach 2021 ATH = 679 days - 105 days Longer
In yellow, I have included the day counts to the 1st 2021 ATH as some consider THIS to be the real cycle ATH But as I have shown in previous posts, there are reasons why this is not the case.
And Besides, it simply was NOT the highest price of that cycle.
I would love people opinion on this , so, if you have read this far, plwease let me know what you think
Thank you
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.