BitcoinUpdated Bitcoin short term with ETF decision date in mind.
As mentioned in the heading this Bitcoin 0.14% analysis is a short term outlook with ETF decision date in mind.
First of all, based on my previous analysis, what I had failed to realize was that there is a high chance it could have pulled back from the resistance to create a iH&S neckline. As outlined in the chart this neckline resistance is also confluent with a support zone first noticed in Feb and tested again in Apr 0.39% .
Moving on, I believe we do not have that many realized support zones left should market sentiment decrease dramatically and spark another mass selloff. I also believe that the main catalyst for this could be that a Bitcoin 0.14% ETF is declined by the SEC. (Proposed decision date is the 10th of August)
This date could also spark a slight rally should social media/Digital asset news sources increase sentiment with valid reasons as to why the SEC should pass the bill. (as of now, I am not confident they will, but could change)
Should the price increase and reach the neckline resistance (marked in red) before the 10th of August, keep an eye and ear out for positive news as it could assist in breaking upwards setting off news/breakout buyers.
In the chart I have outline possible targets should a breakout of the neckline occur. Targets are marked as grey zones with the first line being what I believe would be a weak resistance. The zones come down to your own optimism.
The next 'BIG' moves within this time will all come down to news as it is available.
In closing, if you are going to be playing this leading up to the date, be very vigilant and up to date with news from trusted sources and social media. If you are like me and siting this one out till absolute confirmation on several fronts, take note of price action in between to learn for future reference when trading other markets. Thanks for reading and please leave comments and feedback. I'd love to hear any criticism/positive feedback.
Cheers guys.
First of all, based on my previous analysis, what I had failed to realize was that there is a high chance it could have pulled back from the resistance to create a iH&S neckline. As outlined in the chart this neckline resistance is also confluent with a support zone first noticed in Feb and tested again in Apr 0.39% .
Moving on, I believe we do not have that many realized support zones left should market sentiment decrease dramatically and spark another mass selloff. I also believe that the main catalyst for this could be that a Bitcoin 0.14% ETF is declined by the SEC. (Proposed decision date is the 10th of August)
This date could also spark a slight rally should social media/Digital asset news sources increase sentiment with valid reasons as to why the SEC should pass the bill. (as of now, I am not confident they will, but could change)
Should the price increase and reach the neckline resistance (marked in red) before the 10th of August, keep an eye and ear out for positive news as it could assist in breaking upwards setting off news/breakout buyers.
In the chart I have outline possible targets should a breakout of the neckline occur. Targets are marked as grey zones with the first line being what I believe would be a weak resistance. The zones come down to your own optimism.
The next 'BIG' moves within this time will all come down to news as it is available.
In closing, if you are going to be playing this leading up to the date, be very vigilant and up to date with news from trusted sources and social media. If you are like me and siting this one out till absolute confirmation on several fronts, take note of price action in between to learn for future reference when trading other markets. Thanks for reading and please leave comments and feedback. I'd love to hear any criticism/positive feedback.
Cheers guys.
Note
As mentioned above, Bitcoin will rely heavily upon good/bad news to make a directional decision. Yesterday it was formally announced that BlackRock invest firm which manages ~6.28tril in assets has a dedicated team exploring Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies. This particular announcement assisted in a break through of the 6360-6380 resistance with a move up to 6720 at yesterdays close for an increase of just over 5%.Moving forward, should all 'Bad' news stay at bay, we should see a consolidation within the 6650-6750 range. Should it get a slight move up it will need a break and daily close above 6850 with some volume for confidence.
Remember, if trading this in the current state before August 10th ETF decision, be vigilant and up to date within the space for news as it comes. Should any 'setbacks' be announced it could drop to zones marked in green boxes.
Extra:
Coinbase has also claimed they have been given the all clear to list tokens/coins that have been deemed securities. This means that should a token be classed a security it would have to register with a Broker dealer. In this case, should the news be true, Coinbase will most likely be the first place.
Thanks for reading.
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Cheers.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.