380? Small bounce here?
Looking for a small-ish bounce now. If there isn't, I'm out (pce). The only reason I'm buying is because $380 has been hit a lot as both a low and high. So it's a pivot point potentially. It could easily drop to $370 and slightly below minutes after I post this though. I'd buy @ 370 if we get there to look for a bounce as well.
I don't think the market is very bullish right now, due to reasons described below. Although, futures are very excited about any kind of move in the market. It's like a crapton of traders are just waiting for something to happen and trying to catch the next big move while most of the time nothing is happening.
Previously, I was expecting a retracement up, (maybe 50% retrace-60% retrace) to our big move to 470 either then or after a drop to $370. But now it kind of seems sketchy due to this bearishness. Look at every big top, they're extremely pointy... Indicating people are very ready to sell whenever we rise. Each drop is pretty large as a % to th erise as well. It won't be a while before we have another huge movement. I'm sure a lot of people won't be buying for a while. Moving $100 in btc price is kind of insane and will make people go nuts emotionally.
I wrote some text in a textbox:
"If we break down from 380 to 368, then that means people are VERY bearish. Thus we might break BELOW 368, meaning irrationality... Meaning GO LONG if we go below 368.
I did buy some here at 382-383, but I think that maybe so many general bitcoin people got absolutely crushed in the rise and huge retracement a few days ago to $472 before going down, that we cannot be super-bullish again... Due to the heavy drops and huge retracements we've seen. So there shouldn't be a lot of noob buyers in this market at this time, right? Maybe. People/buyers who lost money need time to emotionally recover before participating in higher-risk scenarios again like buying."
I don't think the market is very bullish right now, due to reasons described below. Although, futures are very excited about any kind of move in the market. It's like a crapton of traders are just waiting for something to happen and trying to catch the next big move while most of the time nothing is happening.
Previously, I was expecting a retracement up, (maybe 50% retrace-60% retrace) to our big move to 470 either then or after a drop to $370. But now it kind of seems sketchy due to this bearishness. Look at every big top, they're extremely pointy... Indicating people are very ready to sell whenever we rise. Each drop is pretty large as a % to th erise as well. It won't be a while before we have another huge movement. I'm sure a lot of people won't be buying for a while. Moving $100 in btc price is kind of insane and will make people go nuts emotionally.
I wrote some text in a textbox:
"If we break down from 380 to 368, then that means people are VERY bearish. Thus we might break BELOW 368, meaning irrationality... Meaning GO LONG if we go below 368.
I did buy some here at 382-383, but I think that maybe so many general bitcoin people got absolutely crushed in the rise and huge retracement a few days ago to $472 before going down, that we cannot be super-bullish again... Due to the heavy drops and huge retracements we've seen. So there shouldn't be a lot of noob buyers in this market at this time, right? Maybe. People/buyers who lost money need time to emotionally recover before participating in higher-risk scenarios again like buying."
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.