Long

Updated

BTC breaks out of the symmetrical triangle targeting 10k

BTC has been consolidating inside a large symmetrical triangle for a few days now.
Symmetrical triangle patterns are continuation patterns. Although I've been expecting a retrace to the lower support levels, in this case, it broke upwards with good volume and a strong closing candle above the resistance. Therefore, we can expect a good continuation move upwards.

A slight pullback to around 9350-9250 area would be perfectly normal (and could be a potential buying opportunity) before continuing the bullish move up.

The projected target of the triangle is 10210. However, it would be smart to lock in partial profits on the previous resistances along the way as well, in order to protect from the scenario where the price reverses from one of those levels and fails to reach the maximum target (which is always very possible, since this market did not yet have a proper retrace to lower supports from where it could build a good supportive structure).

Targets:
1. 9740
2. 10000
3. 10210

The pattern will be invalidated if the price closes below 9070, although closing below 9200-9150 would be a bad sign and would slow down any existing bullish move significantly.

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We seem to have a very strong bullish momentum here. Good sign that the maximum target listed above is likely to be reached with some consolidation and small pullbacks.

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First target reached. (9740)

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The price is moving in an ascending triangle (bullish).
Watch for a breakout above 9835 with good volume to avoid fakeouts.
If the price drops out of the triangle, we might see a short pullback.

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The triangle still holds. We might get a breakout soon.

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As long as the price stays above 9530, I see this as a potential scenario to play out here:

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Very good price action so far. Needs volume to appear soon, to push through this 9880-9900 resistance.
As long as we don't see any major rejections and sell-offs from the resistance line, the longer it consolidates and sticks here, the bigger the chance it breaks out upwards.

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The price hit 9996. It's still sticking here, indicating that there could be some more upside while the bulls try to break 10000.

However, be very careful of a reversal at these levels. We are now in a major resistance zone (9900-10400). This means the price could reverse from anywhere in this zone, and the sell-off could come out of nowehere all of a sudden.
When that happens, the fall will be fast and potentially sharp.
If you're in a long position from lower levels, make sure you have your stops set properly to protect your profits if that happens.
If you're not in a long position, even though this could push higher still, this area is a very dangerous zone to be opening new long positions.

Keep that in mind.

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This is not looking so good anymore. Price hesitated and formed a rising wedge near the resistance. If it doesn't push higher very soon, a correction might be incoming.

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This is what I've been warning you about in my previous two updates.
New short-term resistance now at 9840.

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Bounced off of 9739 fib support perfectly. Good spike. Looking for another attempt to break that magic 10.000. If it consolidates here without selling off below 9850 again, then it is likely we will see that 10k broken.

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The correction did arrive after 2 failed attempts to break 10k. The question now is, is this only a correction before continuing further up with one last push to 10200-10400, or is this an actual reversal which could indicate a broader retracement down to 8700-8800 zone (or even lower to 8200-8500).

The answer to that question will depend on whether the price now manages to break the 9800 resistance. If it rallies up to there, and fails to break it, then that will form a clear Head & Shoulders top which will mean the second scenario described above is in play, and we will see lower prices.

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Moving in a downtrend channel so far. Until the price manages to break out of this channel, the gravity that pulls it to the downside will be stronger than the upside.

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Looks like it formed a failed low. A failed low is when the price tries to dump one more time, but then fails to make a real lower low (usually makes either a double bottom or a slightly lower low) on high volume.

If we look at the volume, the same amount was when the price made that big fall from 9600 to 9200. Now, with THAT much volume again, the price couldn't make a new low, but instead buyers showed up and did not let it be pushed lower at that level.

This should create a temporary low and the bulls should try to push higer from here to at least next resistance.

(ahh, I wrote too much and all this is happeneing already, I started writing when the price was at 9260) :)

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So far (on short time-frame), the price action is positive.
It really needs to break out of this channel here in order to get an accelerated push upwards and see a retest of the 9500-9600 resistance

If it fails to push out of here, then we will likely see continuation down to 9100-9050 zone following the downtrend channel.

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There we go. Next target is 9500-9600 zone

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Over night the price formed a rising wedge, showing weakness and not being able to break out of even the first resistance on its way. Next support level is 9100-9050 area.

Target of that wedge is 9150 though. But if it gets there, it probably won't end the drop there.

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Dropped to the support area 9100-9050 as mentioned above. Let's see if can manage to hold here.

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This channel is something to keep in mind. The price has bounced 3 times off of the support. If that channel breaks however, we could see a faster drop.

Trade closed: target reached

Two targets reached, the third and the most ambitious one failed, but I have posted a new analysis for the next move:

BTC corrective wave ending, bounce expected

eyupium

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