Where we are now in the 2014/15 comparison
So far, this bearmarket is remarkably similar to the 2014/15 one. So much so, that I often think: This can't be, this is too predictable.
Ok, sure, the exact behavior is different, spikes and dumps occur not exactly at the same times and the fractal looks a bit different. But the general behaviour is the same:
1. Slow grind down along an exponential falling resistance line (linear falling in log chart, the red line)
2. Unable to push through daily MA200 => dumps when failing to push through
3. Short pump spikes followed by long grinds down
This makes me think that we'll continue to see new lows like in 2014/15 until mid 2019, when the people will start talking about the good old halving again, which will
take place in mid 2020. Surely this will again generate hype, leading to a slow rise, leading to the start of the next bull cycle when the halving really kicks in, and good news will start taking effect,
like potential ETF, lightning network, positive regulations etc.
Short term short, longterm always long on BTC :)
Ok, sure, the exact behavior is different, spikes and dumps occur not exactly at the same times and the fractal looks a bit different. But the general behaviour is the same:
1. Slow grind down along an exponential falling resistance line (linear falling in log chart, the red line)
2. Unable to push through daily MA200 => dumps when failing to push through
3. Short pump spikes followed by long grinds down
This makes me think that we'll continue to see new lows like in 2014/15 until mid 2019, when the people will start talking about the good old halving again, which will
take place in mid 2020. Surely this will again generate hype, leading to a slow rise, leading to the start of the next bull cycle when the halving really kicks in, and good news will start taking effect,
like potential ETF, lightning network, positive regulations etc.
Short term short, longterm always long on BTC :)
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