BTC - trends' combat
Updated
Hello and please appreciate my first BTC analysis. :)
Here I would like to compare 2018 pitchforked downwards trend with a meta-bull trend line that has been growing since August 2015. I’ve drawn these lines during summer holidays and they work fine - respecting our trend-friend. With the current price action we are exactly at the equilibrium.
[I]Green line - bullish trend line
Green area - downward channel respecting 2018 bear market
Violet upper area - sell signal
Violet lower area - accumulation signal
Due to the conditions we can easily drop one tenth from now - to circa $5050. You should not consider it painful at all. Painful would be short-lived drop to a $3500 area.
But, we can also recover to $6000-7000 atm. Respect lower chances of breaking the once-support-now-ceiling.
First half of January may bring a huge price action as the longterm bull-run crosses the medium of a bear pitchfork. Happy New Year - happy new deal. Watch out!
What this market needs is a use case and regular people using crypto in real life. Only then the market can grow steadily.
But the real question is... where is my institutional money, Mr Novogratz? :>
P.S.: I recommend Monte-Carlo simulation method over the total market capitalization data. Check out Simulating a Polonged Cryptocurrency Bear Market with the Monte Carlo Method by Anthony Xie. It will give you a bigger picture, folks!
P.P.S: Consider different geopolitical factors as well.
Here I would like to compare 2018 pitchforked downwards trend with a meta-bull trend line that has been growing since August 2015. I’ve drawn these lines during summer holidays and they work fine - respecting our trend-friend. With the current price action we are exactly at the equilibrium.
[I]Green line - bullish trend line
Green area - downward channel respecting 2018 bear market
Violet upper area - sell signal
Violet lower area - accumulation signal
Due to the conditions we can easily drop one tenth from now - to circa $5050. You should not consider it painful at all. Painful would be short-lived drop to a $3500 area.
But, we can also recover to $6000-7000 atm. Respect lower chances of breaking the once-support-now-ceiling.
First half of January may bring a huge price action as the longterm bull-run crosses the medium of a bear pitchfork. Happy New Year - happy new deal. Watch out!
What this market needs is a use case and regular people using crypto in real life. Only then the market can grow steadily.
But the real question is... where is my institutional money, Mr Novogratz? :>
P.S.: I recommend Monte-Carlo simulation method over the total market capitalization data. Check out Simulating a Polonged Cryptocurrency Bear Market with the Monte Carlo Method by Anthony Xie. It will give you a bigger picture, folks!
P.P.S: Consider different geopolitical factors as well.
Note
BTC bounced off the lower violet area. May still test the ground. My target for accumulation is $3675.Note
$3000 hodling.Note
Funny how BTC bottomed exactly at the lower violet area...Note
Accumulation continues.Note
Pretty nice move to the upside. We are again in the green chanel. We need to break $4250 to move higher, following the green trend line. Another bigger resistance will be @ $6000 and $8000. Why $8000? Read here: blog.goodaudience.com/the-416-million-usd-liquidation-on-chinese-exchange-okex-super-simplified-8ad656af299aNote
#testpump#testdump #simulationofasimulationNote
Ok, so we moved up guys. We have already retraced 5-6% from yesterday's run. Look @ $4880 to accumulate more. Observe ALT/BTC pairs. I would not recommend shorting, rather adding during pullbacks to your inventory. Cheers!P.S.: That bounce back from the violet upper area doesn't look nice.
Note
If we go to the upper violet area do not forget to lock in some profits, folks! Observe the $5450 level carefully.In other case, keep accumulating.
My target for next 3 weeks: $6350 - $6800.
Note
I remind you guys of the $8000 resistance mentioned in the 24th Feb comment.Note
I assume we will stabilize @ ~ $10000 per BTC during September 2019. My bias is to the fact that we won't break the green trend line. Maybe one or two false breakouts to shake out woollies. ;)Note
---> $8700Note
The green line has become a support again. Respecting the support, we may finish 2019 @ $15000. #hodlNote
Green line as resistance atm.
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