BTC-Coppock is negative
Updated
1d standard Coppock curve (10,14,11) has crossundered 0 -> I think, it might mean, that - unless a huge buying power comes in - a 15-30 days long downtrend might to come.
During negative Coppock-times BTC used to reach Keltner Channel (1.618, 100) so extrapolating this (with low confidence), it may mean that this time BTC might go down and stay in the 8k-12k channel.
Weaknesses of the analysis:
- the "the average mourning period" parameter of Coppock might not be 11-14. Some even say that Coppock is fully invalid for cryptos.
- the hype might change the trend, both coinbase and bitstamp reported the incredible number of people registering for crypo-trading, they might change the trend, bringing in enormous buying power. (Yet, even this case, I think that, down the line a real correction shall happen.)
So my superbiased "CI" for this rough, biased estimation is ~0,6-0,7, low, because I have never seen a hype like this...however, this is certainly NOT a trading advice (I am not a pro), just a biased, personal opinion, trading-tactics-sharing.
Calculate risk (cryptos are superrisky), use reasonable stops, check background technology deeply, avoid FOMO and have fun!
During negative Coppock-times BTC used to reach Keltner Channel (1.618, 100) so extrapolating this (with low confidence), it may mean that this time BTC might go down and stay in the 8k-12k channel.
Weaknesses of the analysis:
- the "the average mourning period" parameter of Coppock might not be 11-14. Some even say that Coppock is fully invalid for cryptos.
- the hype might change the trend, both coinbase and bitstamp reported the incredible number of people registering for crypo-trading, they might change the trend, bringing in enormous buying power. (Yet, even this case, I think that, down the line a real correction shall happen.)
So my superbiased "CI" for this rough, biased estimation is ~0,6-0,7, low, because I have never seen a hype like this...however, this is certainly NOT a trading advice (I am not a pro), just a biased, personal opinion, trading-tactics-sharing.
Calculate risk (cryptos are superrisky), use reasonable stops, check background technology deeply, avoid FOMO and have fun!
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Today BTC has gone down to 12k, the upper side of the 8k-12k channel, I think (based on Coppock, RSI, SMI, CHOP, DMI, MA.) that the downtrend will continue, and I see two ways for the how:1) ~60-70% that if it is a regular ~30-90d correction, than within 1-2 days 4h RSI reaches under 15 and that is where the bottom is...(it might go up/down for a while)
2) ~10-20% that if it the long due 30-90w correction than 1w RSI shall go down under 30, and than BTC shall fall way under 8k
this is NOT a trading advice, just a biased tactics from an unpro, corrections/ideas welcome! Happy New Year...
Order cancelled
Day by day, it seems more and more likely that BTC has stabilized without going bellow 40rsi (1day), which means that it might not fall into the predicted 8k-12k channel...it was/is staying in the 12-16k channel. It means (besides that my prediction was wrong) that unless an OBV-miracle happens than during the next RSI-down phase (springish) it is likely to go touch 30rsi(1 day).
Lessons learned: at BTC 1 day basics: -10% in OBV seems to caused a fall to 50 MA (and not to 100MA as I, and many others thought)
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Trade reactivated. On 4th of Jan, I thought that BTC has stabilized without going bellow 401d RSI due to the OBV stabilization, but I was wrong, I should have studied the weekly and monthly data better.
Based on Today's drop, I think that my original thoughts were OK: BTC 1d RSI is likely to reach 30-ish before going up, and it seems it just did enter the 8k-12k channel.
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Coppock seems to return to positive and BTCUSD 1day RSI had entered 30ish zone and also it seems that it bounced back nicely, OBV seems stable.So it is an entry point for me for mid-term. (With stop sell and also exit at RSI 1 day 80ish area.)
Note
CME Bitcoin Futures BTCF18 closes on 26th of Jan, and settlement is on 31th of Jan. I think that a drop is somewhat likely to happen on these days and 1d-BTC-RSI might go back again to 30-ish.
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