BTCUSD - Breakout or Fakeout?
Updated
As per my previous analysis, we got the Short Squeeze within 8 hours of posting the chart.
Now the question rises whether this short squeeze is just a correction to the upside or whether we shall get a bullish impulsive wave up.
If we were to solely rely on Elliott Wave Analysis then we see two counts. The most important rule every Elliottician must follow is to always have an alternate count.
So here are the two possible counts.
1. I believe only three Minuette waves have completed so far and this is nothing but a small correction to the upside. There is a slight maybe 5% chance that it can push all the wave to mid 7k ranges. To invalidate this count, We will have to breach 7800. I'm leaning towards this count and I don't have my hopes up very high that we will get anything more than 7100.
2. We might have finished all 5 waves down and might be starting a bullish ABC correction which can reach all the way to 7600. Quite frankly I feel like this is a long shot.
Either way, both possible counts are pointing upwards for the short term. So I'm entering a long trade only on BTC as all other alts are not favouring any upward correction.
Kindly know this that the current trend of the market is down. So taking on a counter trend trade is very risky and going all in on this trade would be a very bad idea. Also a lot of stop loss hunting is going on right now so be very cautious. Bart is lurking around the corner.
Godspeed
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
I'm not your Financial Advisor and this is not to be construed as Financial Advice but I can be your Legal Advisor if you can afford me.
Now the question rises whether this short squeeze is just a correction to the upside or whether we shall get a bullish impulsive wave up.
If we were to solely rely on Elliott Wave Analysis then we see two counts. The most important rule every Elliottician must follow is to always have an alternate count.
So here are the two possible counts.
1. I believe only three Minuette waves have completed so far and this is nothing but a small correction to the upside. There is a slight maybe 5% chance that it can push all the wave to mid 7k ranges. To invalidate this count, We will have to breach 7800. I'm leaning towards this count and I don't have my hopes up very high that we will get anything more than 7100.
2. We might have finished all 5 waves down and might be starting a bullish ABC correction which can reach all the way to 7600. Quite frankly I feel like this is a long shot.
Either way, both possible counts are pointing upwards for the short term. So I'm entering a long trade only on BTC as all other alts are not favouring any upward correction.
Kindly know this that the current trend of the market is down. So taking on a counter trend trade is very risky and going all in on this trade would be a very bad idea. Also a lot of stop loss hunting is going on right now so be very cautious. Bart is lurking around the corner.
Godspeed
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
I'm not your Financial Advisor and this is not to be construed as Financial Advice but I can be your Legal Advisor if you can afford me.
Note
This is my previous analysis where I predicted the short squeeze
Trade closed manually
Looking at the incredible weakness of the market I doubt we are gonna move up even a little bit so I'm closing this trade. Bots have managed to push down every breakout attempt.Note
Wow what luck. I closed my trade idea at 6300 and it has started dropping fast.Note
Wow. I guess my original count was right. Just had the timing wrong.
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