BTC Sine Wave Analysis with 3 views
3 Views of a trend analysis using sine wave and Fib Channel.
Couldn't find much information on the use of it. But it was interesting to see the daily chart patterns where a 175 day cycle can provide a managed R/R ratio >4 for trading opportunity.
The top left view shows the most significant bearish pattern BTC has seen.
Top right is the most recent pattern with a projected 28k ATH during this upcoming cycle.
Bottom is a 1W view of the overall market since 2013/2014.
The fib channel, when drawn, shows the projection that lead up to the most recent ATH in december. After reading multiple other analyst predictions, both bullish and bearish prediction; the pattern seems to show the same consistent target everyone is predicting. Most note that in 2018 we may see an ATH of 40k if bullish pattern continues, or a 3k retracement in 2018.
To me, both are easily plausible but I find it hard to believe that a growing institutional sentiment toward cryptocurrency / blockchain, will be the catalyst for a bearish market or full retracement back down to those levels.
Moreover, as ETFs and index funds begin to grow in this specific industry, a bearish sentiment seems counter intuitive. But this is a more bias view since I tend to have a more optimistic and bullish view on the cryptocurrency market as a whole, and have a more bearish sentiment in traditional market. (I play both but feel a retracement for the traditional securities / commodities market is necessary and would be healthy).
A bearish catalyst in BTC would most likely be due to U.S. ruling on the space, a bearish traditional market that impacts cryptocurrency, or a failure in the crypto to fiat exchange (i.e. USDT audit turns out to show lack of funds). While the USDT audit may be concerning, and strict regulation would impact BTC growth, the most concerning to me would be a BTC market that follows a bearish traditional market (in other words a bearish S&P500 / DOWJI causing a bearish sentiment in BTC market). I have yet to see a bearish market for BTC to go up against. But I may be wrong.
Nevertheless I put this up just as an observation and analysis since sentiments seems to be consolidating toward "screw this im out" or "I HODL this long, I might as well just wait" or a flat out "I knew this was a scam / bubble."
Either way, as I told my mentees before, this is a good time to start building your knowledge and evaluating trades that went wrong. That way you are better prepared the next round / cycle.
Have a great weekend.
Couldn't find much information on the use of it. But it was interesting to see the daily chart patterns where a 175 day cycle can provide a managed R/R ratio >4 for trading opportunity.
The top left view shows the most significant bearish pattern BTC has seen.
Top right is the most recent pattern with a projected 28k ATH during this upcoming cycle.
Bottom is a 1W view of the overall market since 2013/2014.
The fib channel, when drawn, shows the projection that lead up to the most recent ATH in december. After reading multiple other analyst predictions, both bullish and bearish prediction; the pattern seems to show the same consistent target everyone is predicting. Most note that in 2018 we may see an ATH of 40k if bullish pattern continues, or a 3k retracement in 2018.
To me, both are easily plausible but I find it hard to believe that a growing institutional sentiment toward cryptocurrency / blockchain, will be the catalyst for a bearish market or full retracement back down to those levels.
Moreover, as ETFs and index funds begin to grow in this specific industry, a bearish sentiment seems counter intuitive. But this is a more bias view since I tend to have a more optimistic and bullish view on the cryptocurrency market as a whole, and have a more bearish sentiment in traditional market. (I play both but feel a retracement for the traditional securities / commodities market is necessary and would be healthy).
A bearish catalyst in BTC would most likely be due to U.S. ruling on the space, a bearish traditional market that impacts cryptocurrency, or a failure in the crypto to fiat exchange (i.e. USDT audit turns out to show lack of funds). While the USDT audit may be concerning, and strict regulation would impact BTC growth, the most concerning to me would be a BTC market that follows a bearish traditional market (in other words a bearish S&P500 / DOWJI causing a bearish sentiment in BTC market). I have yet to see a bearish market for BTC to go up against. But I may be wrong.
Nevertheless I put this up just as an observation and analysis since sentiments seems to be consolidating toward "screw this im out" or "I HODL this long, I might as well just wait" or a flat out "I knew this was a scam / bubble."
Either way, as I told my mentees before, this is a good time to start building your knowledge and evaluating trades that went wrong. That way you are better prepared the next round / cycle.
Have a great weekend.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.