Updated

BTC Might be in serious danger.

Hello friends,
Welcome to this update analysis on the king of the market BTC.

As you all know me, so far I've always just posted about moon shots and happy posts and gains.
But there is something about this market that is concerning me and you as my followers should be aware of in order to secure your investments and hard earned money.

To be honest, as I said in my previous bitcoin post, I've always doublet this last rally of bitcoin, because markets don't tend to bottom like what BTC just did, they either capitulate or go sideways for a long time before bottom out.
The last rally started with a powerful short squeeze and after that, it was just a choppy slow move to the upside which seems like it has topped off to me just as I called it about my ONT and EOS posts.

Here I give you 3 scenarios that you that might happen to BTC and you should be aware of being in this market and I'm gonna explain to you the logic behind them.

Note

Note

I'm gonna start this by teaching you draw trend lines correctly.
So when you wanna draw trend lines you should not use the wicks of a candle cause they don't have any valid data to them. You should use the top right and bottom left of a green candles body, or top left and bottom right of the red candles.
because those are the parts of the candles that have data attached to them.

Note

this is the correct way you should draw trend lines

Note

This is not the correct way of drawing trend lines because wick of a candle doesn't have any data.

Note

so if somebody showing you this picture and convince you the downtrend channel has been broken. they don't know how to draw trend lines.

Note

this is however the correct trend line and we can see that BTC is respecting it perfectly in the recent rally. ( idk if i even can call it a rally)

Note

you can see that the price pushed back from this line any time it hit it just like it has hit a magic wall and wicked down.

Note

now back to the 3 scenarios.

Note

This is A scenario which to me seems unlikely to happen.
Its if the price rallies above the red downtrend trend line go all the way up and above previous high at 11.500$.
It gonna show us that we are for sure in an uptrend.

Note

because then we gonna have this pattern which is called an Adam and Eve bottom but we have to get above the 11.500 to confirm it.

Note

that's gonna be a buy signal for us.

Note

B scenario is we rally up to 11.500 and we gonna fail there. And drop like a rock back to the market structure at the blue line. This drop gonna happen with massive sell side volume.

Note

This is the C scenario that has happened once before to BTC back in 2013 and this whole rally of bitcoin last year up to 20k and back down is rhyming perfectly with the 2013 rally.

Note

we gonna go sideways in this range for few days and then we gonna have a sharp sell-off.

The pattern that we gonna make is called the pattern of disaster that has happened to many other markets before, such as gold and back in the ".Com" bubble.

Note

So here is finally what I want to let you guys know.
If this rally fails and drops back to the market structure there are two things that might happen.
First, we might bounce back from it and go sideways in a range between the two blue lines.
Second, market structure won't hold and we gonna go below the market structure which is the strongest support level that BTC has had so far and bounced twice from it.

Note

IF the market structure does not hold and we go below it. we gonna face a supermassive sell off that you will not gonna believe when it happens.

Note

Thanks for reading it please be prepared.

Good luck trading.

Note

be careful with BTC, it's making a three falling peak pattern inside a rising channel.
a bearish pattern inside a bigger bearish pattern.

Note

seems like as I was writing it started to break down a bit already.
the pattern you see in green lines is called a tree falling peak which 90% of the time end up breaking down.

Note

that red box is gonna be the last stand of samurai for BTC to hold. and bounce from there if it goes down. which is the support of the top of the first rally and the 200 Day EMA the brown ema line.
if BTC fails to hold at that level I expect a massive sell to the downside.

Note

dropped to the first support lets see how it acts there.

Note

I don't think it gonna hold much due to the massive size of the bearish formation on the top.

Note

I think we gonna have a retest of 8.3 in play.

Note

we pierced throw the first support line.
the 2nd support line at 8694 will be a really critical support for BTC to hold.
that red box is the 200-day ema and 100 4hr ema followed by a horizontal resistant.
so can be a strong support for btc.

breaking below that support level will be followed by a massive sell of and is a shorting signal.

but if it holds I'm gonna take the opportunity to buy there with a stop loss below that support.

Note

made a little bear flag and lost the first support going to retest the orange box of supports.
below that things get tricky.

Note

hi again, tbh BTC is in a confusing area for most of us TAs atm.
and I know this chat makes thing more confusing xd
but i'm trying to solve the puzzle of what's going on in this choppy range

Note

this is another bullish wat to look at what is going on.
since my last update, BTC was supported and got back up, and the price action is getting tighter which gave me this idea that we might be in an ascending triangle.

Note

however looking inside of triangle it looks to me that after the last drop from the three falling peak we are now in a rising triangle. that usually breaks down to the downside.

Note

As choppy as the chart is and as we know that crypto is an international market.
I decided to check the chart against the fiat currency of two other major players the cryptocurrency. Korea and Japan so maybe i can find a better clue there.

Note

this chart is BTC against JPY. They look quite same. but with a key difference that now we are flirting with the top resistant of the triangle.
and the chart looks more bullish compared to USD pair.
a break above the triangle will be a buy signal for Japanese trader to buy btc.

Note

looking at the chart against KRW, (Koreas currency)
we are half way up to top resistant.
but I think a break out against Japanese yen will lead to moving of the price to the top of the triangle against KWR chart and that'll be another buy signal for KWR traders.

Note

back to the USD char which is the least bullish one in my opinion. if we get a break up from the JWP and KRW charts that might lead to a break up of this wedge against usd chart.

Note

Anyways all of this is a theory at the moment and we have to see what will play out.

However, I believe a break out of this triangle to either side will be an important decider of where the btc is going.

Note

To me, a break out above this triangle with good volume will be a buy signal atm.

Note

seems like BTC against JPY is breaking out of this pattern, let's see what happen.

Note

japanese guys went full ham lets see what Korea does

Note

seems like Korea broke up from the pattern as well, time for USD.

Note

we are almost there!

Note

someone asked me in the comment that why did I make this analysis and who cares about Korean exchanges.
I explain what was behind my thinking process.

Note

Korean exchanges and Japanese exchanges play a massive role in crypto, next time check when a coin gets a list on bithump or yobit , they spike at least 50%. korean exchanges also trade with more expansive rates hence coin market cap removed them from the average market prices last year if you remember.

Also, another important thing is traders step away from trading in the choppy market and it decreases the money flow.
so my thinking process was to see which pairing will get out of the chop range and allows the traders to bring money to the market.

Note

seems like my domino has worked so far. ;)

Note

<.< what's up?

Note

still, guys, all this said we are not out of the woods until we go above 11.5 so be careful.

Note

not bad so far, I like the way it's flirting with the resistant, it's early to say but it looks like it's making a bull flag, if it breaks up the target will be around 10,300$

I will take some profits out of the table there, cause it gonna face some heavy resistant in that area and it might retrace from there.

Trader_Shayan

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

Trader_Shayan