HISTORY OF DOWNTRENDS ON THE MONTHLY CHART: BY CRYPTO SINGH
*DOWNTRENDS ON THE MONTHLY CHART (BITSTAMP):* (BY CRYPTO SINGH)
Now let’s look into the history of past downtrends following the end of a bull run.
*DOWNTREND AFTER EACH ALL-TIME-HIGH, UP UNTIL THE 20 Monthly EMA HAS BEEN RECLAIMED:*
*DEC'13-OCT'15=23 MONTHS* (After the blow-off-top ATH of $1163 in November 2013, a downtrend ensued and the 20 monthly EMA was only reclaimed after 23 months!)
*JAN'18-APR'19=16 MONTHS* (After the blow-off-top ATH of $19,666 in December 2017, a downtrend ensued and the 20 monthly EMA was only reclaimed after 16 months!)
*NOV'21-MAY'22=7 MONTHS & counting*…(There has been no blow-off-top this time. However, after the ATH of 69k in November 2021, it’s been 7 months since we have been in a downtrend. According to previous downtrends following an ATH, we can see that each downtrend is shortened (23 months in 2013 and 16 months in 2018), and so this downtrend could last 10 months in total. Hence, it could be another 3 months before the end of the current downtrend)
A true bear market is identified as being a bear market when the price of an asset falls below the 20 Monthly EMA; Hence, let us now look at how many time this has happened in BTC’s history and for how long:
*MONTHS SPENT BELOW THE 20 MEMA BEFORE RECLAIMING IT:*
OCT'14-OCT'15=13 MONTHS
NOV'18-APR'19=6 MONTHS
MARCH'20-APR-20=2 MONTHS
MAY'22- =1 MONTH & counting....
My verdict: According to previous moments in history when BTC’s price has dipped below the 20 Monthly EMA, we can see that each subsequent duration that this has happened is half the previous duration (2014/2015=13 months, 2018/2019=6 months); Given that currently we have been 1 month below the 20 monthly EMA, I expect us to remain below this EMA for another 2-3 months.
In short, we can expect the 20 Monthly EMA to be reclaimed somewhere between August and October 2022.
Thanks for reading.
Now let’s look into the history of past downtrends following the end of a bull run.
*DOWNTREND AFTER EACH ALL-TIME-HIGH, UP UNTIL THE 20 Monthly EMA HAS BEEN RECLAIMED:*
*DEC'13-OCT'15=23 MONTHS* (After the blow-off-top ATH of $1163 in November 2013, a downtrend ensued and the 20 monthly EMA was only reclaimed after 23 months!)
*JAN'18-APR'19=16 MONTHS* (After the blow-off-top ATH of $19,666 in December 2017, a downtrend ensued and the 20 monthly EMA was only reclaimed after 16 months!)
*NOV'21-MAY'22=7 MONTHS & counting*…(There has been no blow-off-top this time. However, after the ATH of 69k in November 2021, it’s been 7 months since we have been in a downtrend. According to previous downtrends following an ATH, we can see that each downtrend is shortened (23 months in 2013 and 16 months in 2018), and so this downtrend could last 10 months in total. Hence, it could be another 3 months before the end of the current downtrend)
A true bear market is identified as being a bear market when the price of an asset falls below the 20 Monthly EMA; Hence, let us now look at how many time this has happened in BTC’s history and for how long:
*MONTHS SPENT BELOW THE 20 MEMA BEFORE RECLAIMING IT:*
OCT'14-OCT'15=13 MONTHS
NOV'18-APR'19=6 MONTHS
MARCH'20-APR-20=2 MONTHS
MAY'22- =1 MONTH & counting....
My verdict: According to previous moments in history when BTC’s price has dipped below the 20 Monthly EMA, we can see that each subsequent duration that this has happened is half the previous duration (2014/2015=13 months, 2018/2019=6 months); Given that currently we have been 1 month below the 20 monthly EMA, I expect us to remain below this EMA for another 2-3 months.
In short, we can expect the 20 Monthly EMA to be reclaimed somewhere between August and October 2022.
Thanks for reading.
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