BTC WEEKEND UPDATE III: DIVERGENCE = CHANNEL BREAK!
Updated
Hello all!
Finally! We got a break out of this tight consolidation pattern!
In the last post I mentioned the potential of the 0.618 being the support level that allows for the reversal, and in an update, that the 0.786 should be watched for a potential final entry. We were waiting for the signals hinting to us when this shift might come. On the 1H chart we were getting the signs of the impending move from the oscillators. The MACD should be shifting its momentum once price hits a new low, otherwise the potential divergence might only result in a lower low in price with momentum passing the previous low. The confirmed lower lows in price coupled with the higher lows on the MACD and RSI is what gave us the heads up in this situation. With a history of support at the 0.618, as well as the bottom of a descending channel with bullish divergence, all make for a good recipe when closing shorts/ opening longs. I have marked the next possible outcome of this scenario on the chart above. Immediate limits to this upside move are $10,188 -$10373. The downside breakdown will most likely hold support at $9,376. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be convincing volume. If the 0.5 level does not hold, there might be another re-entry / support zone at the 0.618 one more time before the upper levels are seen.
The question on everyone's mind now is of course - Will Bitcoin hold $10,000 and spike up, or will it crash?
Let me know what you think!
Leave a comment !
Finally! We got a break out of this tight consolidation pattern!
In the last post I mentioned the potential of the 0.618 being the support level that allows for the reversal, and in an update, that the 0.786 should be watched for a potential final entry. We were waiting for the signals hinting to us when this shift might come. On the 1H chart we were getting the signs of the impending move from the oscillators. The MACD should be shifting its momentum once price hits a new low, otherwise the potential divergence might only result in a lower low in price with momentum passing the previous low. The confirmed lower lows in price coupled with the higher lows on the MACD and RSI is what gave us the heads up in this situation. With a history of support at the 0.618, as well as the bottom of a descending channel with bullish divergence, all make for a good recipe when closing shorts/ opening longs. I have marked the next possible outcome of this scenario on the chart above. Immediate limits to this upside move are $10,188 -$10373. The downside breakdown will most likely hold support at $9,376. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be convincing volume. If the 0.5 level does not hold, there might be another re-entry / support zone at the 0.618 one more time before the upper levels are seen.
The question on everyone's mind now is of course - Will Bitcoin hold $10,000 and spike up, or will it crash?
Let me know what you think!
Leave a comment !
Note
Back test of the channel with lower volume and candle spread.
Note
^ Heiken Ashi chart on the 1HNote
Note
Note
Weak hands leaving? or possible breakdown?
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