BitcoinShort
Macro and Meso View - 4 Levels of BTC analysis
For the Micro (4 Hour Candles) and Nano (15 Minute Candles) please check the chart here 
Macro View (Weekly Candles)
First of all, let's start off with the Macro view of BTC before we zoom in.
After the test of the 55EMA at the end of March, BTC made some good gains (approx 50%) with consistent weekly growth as demonstrated by the 3 green candles. This is now confirming the 55EMA as a strong support level as it shows 2 very clear tests and trend reversals as highlighted in the Cyan circles.
Another key point of interest in the Macro view is 13EMA. Since breaking below it after the Bull Run of 2017; any time we close above it, we have an immediate reversal on the following candle. This is demonstrated by the Red Circles.
As the last weekly candle closed above I am very interested to see if the pattern continues or if we truly are back to a bullish trend.
Looking at the Fibonacci Retracement by drawing from the Peak at $11,790 on the 20th of February to the bottom of $6420 on the 1st of April - we can see that last week's candle perfectly hit and reversed at the 0.618 Fib level. This is another common key reveral level and gives more confirmations of a high possibility that we will enter a Bearish Trend for the coming few weeks.
As well as all of the above; We can see that the volume of BTC over the last few weeks has been on a steady decline as shown by the Yellow Dashed Line. This can be attributed to multiple factors but I see the main causes as being:
The media coverage of Crypto has declined significantly since the ATH (All Time High)
Traders are still being cautious as BTC is in a High-Risk trading zone where a Significant Decline could happen at any moment
IF the pattern of reversals at 13EMA continue and the Fib level of 0.618 is not broken, I would expect to see another test of the 55EMA as support. If this scenario does play out I will do a more in-depth Macro View Analysis once we have confirmation.
Meso View (Daily Candles)
Looking now at the Daily candles we can see that the Channel continues to provide strong support and resistance with a few small false breaks. We will have a closer look at the action within this channel when we look at the Micro View later on.
For the last 10 days. we have been trading within a zone of approx $8700 to $9500 with just a few attempted breaks above and below. Since we now have a high probability of a trend reversal on the Macro View, I am expecting a retest of the green lower support line at $8660 followed by a break to lower teritory. The key points of interest I have are the 0.382 Fib at 849X and the 0.618 Fib at 770X - both which could provide support and reversal points.
Interestingly the reversals that happened at the weekly 0.618 Fib level also happened at an RSI of 70. The RSI had not hit 70 since the 18th of December when the price was in the region of 18k. Currently, the RSI is at 60 which is indicating a slight lean towards being overbought.
Where Bitcoin has shown strength, however, is its break and hold above the 55EMA. This is the longest period we have spent above the 55EMA since the Bear Trend began from ATH. As usual - the 55EMA should provide a strong support line.
If you liked this analysis please remember to give it a Thumbs Up, Follow me and share the chart with anyone else you feel would be interested!
LEGEND:
Drawn Lines
Purple Lines offset from trend = Confirmation/Entry levels
Plotted Lines
Yellow Plotted Line = 55EMA based on the Fibonacci number of 55
Pink Plotted Line = 13EMA based on the Fibonacci number of 13
Macro View (Weekly Candles)
First of all, let's start off with the Macro view of BTC before we zoom in.
After the test of the 55EMA at the end of March, BTC made some good gains (approx 50%) with consistent weekly growth as demonstrated by the 3 green candles. This is now confirming the 55EMA as a strong support level as it shows 2 very clear tests and trend reversals as highlighted in the Cyan circles.
Another key point of interest in the Macro view is 13EMA. Since breaking below it after the Bull Run of 2017; any time we close above it, we have an immediate reversal on the following candle. This is demonstrated by the Red Circles.
As the last weekly candle closed above I am very interested to see if the pattern continues or if we truly are back to a bullish trend.
Looking at the Fibonacci Retracement by drawing from the Peak at $11,790 on the 20th of February to the bottom of $6420 on the 1st of April - we can see that last week's candle perfectly hit and reversed at the 0.618 Fib level. This is another common key reveral level and gives more confirmations of a high possibility that we will enter a Bearish Trend for the coming few weeks.
As well as all of the above; We can see that the volume of BTC over the last few weeks has been on a steady decline as shown by the Yellow Dashed Line. This can be attributed to multiple factors but I see the main causes as being:
The media coverage of Crypto has declined significantly since the ATH (All Time High)
Traders are still being cautious as BTC is in a High-Risk trading zone where a Significant Decline could happen at any moment
IF the pattern of reversals at 13EMA continue and the Fib level of 0.618 is not broken, I would expect to see another test of the 55EMA as support. If this scenario does play out I will do a more in-depth Macro View Analysis once we have confirmation.
Meso View (Daily Candles)
Looking now at the Daily candles we can see that the Channel continues to provide strong support and resistance with a few small false breaks. We will have a closer look at the action within this channel when we look at the Micro View later on.
For the last 10 days. we have been trading within a zone of approx $8700 to $9500 with just a few attempted breaks above and below. Since we now have a high probability of a trend reversal on the Macro View, I am expecting a retest of the green lower support line at $8660 followed by a break to lower teritory. The key points of interest I have are the 0.382 Fib at 849X and the 0.618 Fib at 770X - both which could provide support and reversal points.
Interestingly the reversals that happened at the weekly 0.618 Fib level also happened at an RSI of 70. The RSI had not hit 70 since the 18th of December when the price was in the region of 18k. Currently, the RSI is at 60 which is indicating a slight lean towards being overbought.
Where Bitcoin has shown strength, however, is its break and hold above the 55EMA. This is the longest period we have spent above the 55EMA since the Bear Trend began from ATH. As usual - the 55EMA should provide a strong support line.
If you liked this analysis please remember to give it a Thumbs Up, Follow me and share the chart with anyone else you feel would be interested!
LEGEND:
Drawn Lines
Purple Lines offset from trend = Confirmation/Entry levels
Plotted Lines
Yellow Plotted Line = 55EMA based on the Fibonacci number of 55
Pink Plotted Line = 13EMA based on the Fibonacci number of 13
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