BitcoinShort
BTCUSD <9k Possibility? Elliot Wave Analysis
Updated
This is less of a short and more of an idea to be very, very careful with Bitcoin. It still hasn't shown signs of a true reversal as I will talk about. The theoretical PT is 8350, but this is if the top has already been made. I believe redrawing on the ending diagonal is very likely so that isn't set in stone even if the rest of the drawing is correct.
Why would I think this?
-RSI has not broken 60 on any timeframe 1h and above which means it still hasn't broken the bearish channel. If Bitcoin can break 60 RSI on higher timeframes it will help to invalidate my drawing
-MACD is diverging on histogram - short term bearish signal. This in combination with how poorly the impulse is doing with the waves overlapping each other combines to make a poor looking picture. It could likely be an ending diagonal, however this is not confirmed in any way. If Bitcoin can break the 15135 level marked that will help to invalidate my drawing
-The RSI on my new impulse drawing was NOT bullishly diverging from wave 5 to wave 3. On my previous idea I marked out that it was an ABC. That is simply false. If that was the case it would have likely been bullishly diverging as it made the new low on wave 5.
Leave any feedback in the comments, feel free to PM me if you have any questions. I will try to update this idea and if anything is invalidated I will likely make a new idea
Why would I think this?
-RSI has not broken 60 on any timeframe 1h and above which means it still hasn't broken the bearish channel. If Bitcoin can break 60 RSI on higher timeframes it will help to invalidate my drawing
-MACD is diverging on histogram - short term bearish signal. This in combination with how poorly the impulse is doing with the waves overlapping each other combines to make a poor looking picture. It could likely be an ending diagonal, however this is not confirmed in any way. If Bitcoin can break the 15135 level marked that will help to invalidate my drawing
-The RSI on my new impulse drawing was NOT bullishly diverging from wave 5 to wave 3. On my previous idea I marked out that it was an ABC. That is simply false. If that was the case it would have likely been bullishly diverging as it made the new low on wave 5.
Leave any feedback in the comments, feel free to PM me if you have any questions. I will try to update this idea and if anything is invalidated I will likely make a new idea
Note
MACD still bearishly diverging on histogram. 60 RSI level being tested currently on 1H, very important what happens next. Last candle closed RSI at 62 but now is meeting resistance at 60 RSINote
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/f/FKc3L94T.pngHuge sell off at end of candle, not sure if this candle can even be deemed relevant because of it but nonetheless incredibly bearish candle forming just one candle after RSI was tested above 60 at 62
Note
Short position is reasonable here, stop loss at ~15450
Note
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/g/gpwkx9zp.png60 RSI broke on 1h, 4h testing 60 with resistance. If it breaks 4h - 1d 60 RSI reversal could become real but right now it doesn't look like it's over yet
Note
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/u/u0XQ7eJx.pngOn track to 5-9k
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