BitcoinLong
Bitcoin: March 21 Pullback Solution & Trade
Updated
I opened my trade back in March 18-19, 2018 & didn't post here. However, I did on the other side.
The current trend might be seen as a continuation of 1D/1W channel down i.e. bearish. However, I see it different & much similar to early Feb bull run. Here is a snippet of my opened trades...
BTC/USD
19-03-2018 08:42
TRADES: Recalling the interpretation of this descending broadening wedge (https://nnnnhttps://invst.ly/6ymb9) remains valid while BTC is aiming to test SMA200d (8582; at the time of writing this post). Obviously it would have been safer to open a passive position when BTC prices above SMA200d. I decided to go aggressive and risky positions since it breached through down-trending resistance, formed bullish engulfing pattern, and three outside up pattern on 5H timeframe confirming the reversal. They close above the prev. If these trades fail, my SL(-3% max) at 61.8% retracement will trigger. Happy to do that while eyeing a fair test of 9.2 / 10k and taking intermediate https://profits...nnnhttps://invst.ly/6ymdh...nnnn
Current Situation (UTC 21:25 March 21, 2018)
My expected support level i.e. 8700 (top of first impulse) hasn’t been touched yet. Since for all longs, I moved SL up i.e. 8700 to remain in profits. I can’t ignore the fact that the ongoing pullback can go down either Fib0.618(8437) or at an extreme case i.e. Fib0.236 (7697) relative to Mar 18 provisional bottom. Given BTC is 23% up relative to early Feb 2018, I am assuming that the later scenario is unlikely under these circumstances. Furthermore, there are no solid signals warranting that BTC is heading to test the previously provisional bottom. Thus, I stand by my view & keep the longs open unless the mentioned TP/SL levels are automatically triggered. Internally, I count the fourth wave (bearish, 4h/5h timeframe) under construction. Should BTC remain above 8700, I will be more than happy since that impulsive wave will guarantee an upside potential & a proper test of 9400 resistance.
Noise Removal
Too much noise on standard charts. One has to ignore it! Here is a chart with my current positions & interpretation…. https://nnnhttps://invst.ly/6zkme...The fifth wave is hypothetically drawn to illustrate an upside potential. However, as I said, the fourth wave remains under construction & is perhaps 2/3 4H candles away. Here is another chart to show the TA with Default & with noise removed so that I don’t get biased/trapped.…nnnn invst.ly/6zkn8....Hope this helps!
Elliott Labels: Ignore the label style i.e. 1,2,3,4,5 numbers for the March 18-March 21. Those are minor scale cycles and should have been annotated as (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), to make the first impulsive wave, which is apparently incomplete. My bad but I hope you got the idea.
The current trend might be seen as a continuation of 1D/1W channel down i.e. bearish. However, I see it different & much similar to early Feb bull run. Here is a snippet of my opened trades...
BTC/USD
19-03-2018 08:42
TRADES: Recalling the interpretation of this descending broadening wedge (https://nnnnhttps://invst.ly/6ymb9) remains valid while BTC is aiming to test SMA200d (8582; at the time of writing this post). Obviously it would have been safer to open a passive position when BTC prices above SMA200d. I decided to go aggressive and risky positions since it breached through down-trending resistance, formed bullish engulfing pattern, and three outside up pattern on 5H timeframe confirming the reversal. They close above the prev. If these trades fail, my SL(-3% max) at 61.8% retracement will trigger. Happy to do that while eyeing a fair test of 9.2 / 10k and taking intermediate https://profits...nnnhttps://invst.ly/6ymdh...nnnn
Current Situation (UTC 21:25 March 21, 2018)
My expected support level i.e. 8700 (top of first impulse) hasn’t been touched yet. Since for all longs, I moved SL up i.e. 8700 to remain in profits. I can’t ignore the fact that the ongoing pullback can go down either Fib0.618(8437) or at an extreme case i.e. Fib0.236 (7697) relative to Mar 18 provisional bottom. Given BTC is 23% up relative to early Feb 2018, I am assuming that the later scenario is unlikely under these circumstances. Furthermore, there are no solid signals warranting that BTC is heading to test the previously provisional bottom. Thus, I stand by my view & keep the longs open unless the mentioned TP/SL levels are automatically triggered. Internally, I count the fourth wave (bearish, 4h/5h timeframe) under construction. Should BTC remain above 8700, I will be more than happy since that impulsive wave will guarantee an upside potential & a proper test of 9400 resistance.
Noise Removal
Too much noise on standard charts. One has to ignore it! Here is a chart with my current positions & interpretation…. https://nnnhttps://invst.ly/6zkme...The fifth wave is hypothetically drawn to illustrate an upside potential. However, as I said, the fourth wave remains under construction & is perhaps 2/3 4H candles away. Here is another chart to show the TA with Default & with noise removed so that I don’t get biased/trapped.…nnnn invst.ly/6zkn8....Hope this helps!
Elliott Labels: Ignore the label style i.e. 1,2,3,4,5 numbers for the March 18-March 21. Those are minor scale cycles and should have been annotated as (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), to make the first impulsive wave, which is apparently incomplete. My bad but I hope you got the idea.
Note
All longs were auto-closed with minor gains since I opened positions under 8100 & kept on moving the SLs to profit zones as explained earlier. Now the only confirmation that I need to re-enter the market is where does BTC hold e.g. at Fib 0.618 (8450 approx.) / Fib0.5(8200). It is very important that BTC holds between these two levels to continue its momentum. I guess we are still a day or two away before we will see this. A time-frame such as 1H or 15m will not do & I won't stress on those for now. Until that I will wait and look for a re-entry pattern. All this is based on the fact that I am considering it as a correction/pullback on the past days gains. Remember that an extensive pullback can go as hard as to Fib0.236(7697), Fib0.382(7980) if you are shorting this. Following the market trend, I don't bother about these levels for now. Maybe when the level 8200 is significantly breached threatening the downward momentum.
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