2023 Surf Watch: BTC
Updated
BTCUSD: 30666What
1. This is a surf watching thread of BTC
2. It acts as a diary or reference of key technical and fundamental events on BTC
3. It will also note key predictions, forecasts and opinions
Why
1. It is easy to get caught up by secondary waves and lose sight of the primary swell
2. It is important to remember how wrong predictions by famous people have been
3. and how much we panicked, either FUD or FOMO when we read those predictions
4. Crypto and BTC is susceptible to this because it is speculative and unregulated
Note
News1. Fidelity’s Renewed Bid for a Spot Bitcoin ETF
cryptoglobe.com/latest/2023/06/fidelitys-renewed-bid-for-a-spot-bitcoin-etf/
Analysis:
1. Current BTC buzz is still on spot BTC ETF
2. Expecting this to die down when people realize it is not going to happen as soon as they expect
3. Generally it should be unlikely for a listing to happen until 2024
Note
BTC: $30426News:
1. BTC Spot ETFs Rejected by SEC; Applications Lack Clarity
cryptobriefing.com/btc-spot-etfs-rejected-by-sec/
Commentary:
1. This news caused a drop from 31k to sub 30k before regaining to 30.4k now. The takeaway here is that SEC wanted more details on the "survelliance sharing agreement". In my opinion, this is merely one of many infinitely long questions SEC will be asking. My position is the same, that there will be NO spot BTC in the near future. However, the market is not giving up hope yet.
Note
BTC: $30419News:
1. Here's When Bitcoin Might Hit $250,000, According to Tim Draper
u.today/heres-when-bitcoin-might-hit-250000-according-to-tim-draper
Commentary:
1. Tim predicted 250k BTC by 2022, and has now pushed this to 2025. Imagine anyone who had been taken in by his sweet words then. Remember he bought 30,000 BTC at $632 in 2014. He's one lucky fuck, but don't assume he will be a lucky fuck again, nor you, by following him.
Lessons:
1. Tim Draper predicts bitcoin will reach $250,000 next year despite FTX collapse: ‘The dam is about to break’
PUBLISHED MON, DEC 5 2022 4:56 AM EST
2. Investor Tim Draper Is “100% Sure” Bitcoin Will Reach $250,000 By 2024
Draper has extended his prediction $250,000 bitcoin by six months due to the collapse of FTX and unfavorable macroeconomic factors.
Note
BTC: $30421News:
1. Peter Brandt suggests investors long Bitcoin as BTC price is likely to hit $40,000. Ethereum price soars over 10% after the Shapella upgrade. April 14, 2023
coingape.com/legendry-trader-peter-brandt-shares-new-bitcoin-target-eth-price-soars-10/
Lessons:
1. Remember that just as "legendary" traders like Tim Draper spout nonsense like 250k BTC by 2022, so even far lower predictions by "legendary" Peter Brandt of 40k can't be met
2. The only thing legendary about these traders which FOMO/FUD fake crypto news websites and tweeters is their legendary ability to be ALWAYS WRONG.
3. Read only news, but never read crypto opinions. Do your own research and develop your own trading plan. Ignore comments on your ideas on tradingview.
Note
BTC: $31150News:
1. Bitcoin Expert Predicts Q3, Q4 Crypto Bull Run Timeline, But There’s A Catch
coingape.com/crypto-expert-predicts-bitcoin-bull-run-timeline/
1a. Adrian Zduńczyk, CMT @crypto_birb
It’s just unreasonable to see all the facts & data and still deny #Bitcoin bull market. Over $31,400, however, the bears will have no argument left to prove their delusion. After slow summer, I’d expect fireworks in Q4.
twitter.com/crypto_birb/status/1675998234278330372?s=20
Lessons:
1. Would you believe someone who is an influencer with a big beard (nothing against beards but is it there for a reason) makes him a wiser soothsayer?
2. Honestly if anyone was so good, he would be a billionaire easily, and if he were a billionaire, he would be here for kicks like Tim Draper
3. The proof is always in the pudding so lets see back (which he will of course be proven wrong yet again), and we always give these people another listening chance.
Note
BTC: $31010News:
1. In a recent open letter addressed to Barry Silbert, the CEO of Digital Currency Group (DCG), Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the popular cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, has reignited the ongoing saga surrounding the alleged fraudulent behavior of DCG and its subsidiary, Genesis. With over $1.2 billion worth of assets trapped in Genesis, Winklevoss represents 232,000 Earn users who have been severely affected by the actions of DCG.
In a strongly worded letter, Winklevoss accuses Silbert and his company of fostering a culture of lies, deceit, and financial misconduct.
bitcoinist.com/gemini-vs-dcg-winklevoss-lawsuit-within-72-hours/
Lessons:
1. The bear market is still ongoing for a few more months and this will bring out even more in-fighting
2. In the end, no one is to be trusted except to fight for his/her own interests
3. Prove in point - DCG is the owner of Greyscale Investment that holds Greyscale BTC trust. Its just hilarious.
Note
BTC: $30576Technicals:
1. Dead as the dead sea
News:
1. Bitcoin ETF in the US Will Probably Happen According to Novogratz. Galaxy Digital’s attempt to introduce a BTC ETF has turned to be a “long and frustrating path,” he added.
cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-etf-in-the-us-will-probably-happen-according-to-novogratz/
2. Silk Road–Linked Bitcoin Worth 300M Moved by U.S. Government: On-Chain Data. The U.S. government previously sold 9,861 bitcoin for $216 million in March.
decrypt.co/148285/us-moves-300m-worth-of-silk-road-bitcoin
Thoughts:
1. I want to observe BTC pressure if US govt sells its BTC which will match the
25K drop to 20k on 9 March 2023Note
BTC : $29793Technicals:
1. Price action is weak and heavy
Thoughts:
1. I feel that without any impetus, and with everyone going on summer hols, price action will be left for the wolves.
Note
BTC : $28910Technicals:
1. We are 5 days from printing the first negative 1wk MACD
2. We are well into moving below 0 on 1d MACD
Thoughts:
1. Don't see any good impetus in the horizon, I believe we need another 6 months to April when someone starts getting the excitement going that the halving is here.
2. I am still looking at a dip down to around 20k between now and April 2024
Trade closed manually
ideas all over space and time makes it confusing for myself. consolidating everything into a single "idea-blog" style format. closing this idea off.
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