BitcoinUpdated Bitcoin's bearish target today: 94000-95000
Bitcoin's bearish target today: 94000-95000
Technical side
The four-hour cycle is shown in the figure:
Bitcoin is under great pressure near $100,000, and the upward momentum is obviously insufficient.
It is still in a period of adjustment and accumulation of momentum.
Short-term strategy:
SELL: 97600-98500
SL: 99500-101000
TP1: 96000
TP2: 95000
TP3: 94000
TP4: 93500-925000
Fundamentals:
During the campaign, US President-elect Trump said that he hopes all remaining Bitcoins will be mined in the United States. Although this idea is very grand, it is almost impossible to achieve in the eyes of industry insiders. Not only because of the limitations of technology and resources, but also because of the globalization and distributed nature of Bitcoin itself, this goal is destined to remain at the level of thought.
Although Trump's goal seems out of reach, the United States is still very competitive in the field of cryptocurrency.
Regulatory framework: The United States is gradually improving its regulatory policies for cryptocurrencies to provide a more stable environment for companies.
Technological innovation: American companies are leading in blockchain technology, mining hardware and software optimization.
Capital support: The United States has the most developed financial market in the world, providing ample financing opportunities for crypto companies.
What we need to explore is:
The impact that Trump's first 100 days in office may have on the Bitcoin BTC market and the overall cryptocurrency market.
1: Trump has repeatedly expressed his support for the crypto industry during the campaign, which has brought hope to investors. As Trump is about to officially take office, cryptocurrency supporters are looking forward to his fulfillment of his campaign promises and promoting a more friendly regulatory environment. This policy change is believed to provide long-term support for Bitcoin BTC prices.
2: The first 100 days of Trump's term will be a critical period. Investors will pay special attention to whether he will establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States, which is a strategic goal he mentioned during the campaign. Although there is no detailed implementation plan for this plan, its potential impact cannot be underestimated.
3: Crypto market participants expect the Trump administration to provide clear guidelines on which cryptocurrencies should be classified as securities. In the past, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), under the leadership of Gary Gensler, mainly regulated through enforcement actions rather than clear guidance, which was controversial. Investors hope that the new government can bring positive changes in this regard to promote the healthy development of the crypto industry.
4: The Fed's interest rate policy will play a key role in future market trends. At the end of 2024, Fed officials hinted that the rate cut in 2025 may be lower than expected. Investors will pay close attention to this policy direction because interest rate changes often have a direct impact on the prices of risky assets, including Bitcoin. It is expected that the Fed will maintain its key interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% in 2025. There is a 14% probability, a 25 basis point rate cut, and a 31.5% probability of two 25 basis point rate cuts.
Summary:
Trump's promises are highly variable, and cryptocurrencies need to be viewed in the long term. It is difficult for policies to make big moves in the short term, and the technical side is more important.
Technical side
The four-hour cycle is shown in the figure:
Bitcoin is under great pressure near $100,000, and the upward momentum is obviously insufficient.
It is still in a period of adjustment and accumulation of momentum.
Short-term strategy:
SELL: 97600-98500
SL: 99500-101000
TP1: 96000
TP2: 95000
TP3: 94000
TP4: 93500-925000
Fundamentals:
During the campaign, US President-elect Trump said that he hopes all remaining Bitcoins will be mined in the United States. Although this idea is very grand, it is almost impossible to achieve in the eyes of industry insiders. Not only because of the limitations of technology and resources, but also because of the globalization and distributed nature of Bitcoin itself, this goal is destined to remain at the level of thought.
Although Trump's goal seems out of reach, the United States is still very competitive in the field of cryptocurrency.
Regulatory framework: The United States is gradually improving its regulatory policies for cryptocurrencies to provide a more stable environment for companies.
Technological innovation: American companies are leading in blockchain technology, mining hardware and software optimization.
Capital support: The United States has the most developed financial market in the world, providing ample financing opportunities for crypto companies.
What we need to explore is:
The impact that Trump's first 100 days in office may have on the Bitcoin BTC market and the overall cryptocurrency market.
1: Trump has repeatedly expressed his support for the crypto industry during the campaign, which has brought hope to investors. As Trump is about to officially take office, cryptocurrency supporters are looking forward to his fulfillment of his campaign promises and promoting a more friendly regulatory environment. This policy change is believed to provide long-term support for Bitcoin BTC prices.
2: The first 100 days of Trump's term will be a critical period. Investors will pay special attention to whether he will establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States, which is a strategic goal he mentioned during the campaign. Although there is no detailed implementation plan for this plan, its potential impact cannot be underestimated.
3: Crypto market participants expect the Trump administration to provide clear guidelines on which cryptocurrencies should be classified as securities. In the past, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), under the leadership of Gary Gensler, mainly regulated through enforcement actions rather than clear guidance, which was controversial. Investors hope that the new government can bring positive changes in this regard to promote the healthy development of the crypto industry.
4: The Fed's interest rate policy will play a key role in future market trends. At the end of 2024, Fed officials hinted that the rate cut in 2025 may be lower than expected. Investors will pay close attention to this policy direction because interest rate changes often have a direct impact on the prices of risky assets, including Bitcoin. It is expected that the Fed will maintain its key interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% in 2025. There is a 14% probability, a 25 basis point rate cut, and a 31.5% probability of two 25 basis point rate cuts.
Summary:
Trump's promises are highly variable, and cryptocurrencies need to be viewed in the long term. It is difficult for policies to make big moves in the short term, and the technical side is more important.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.