This isn't proper TA as much as brainstorming put to a chart.
Background: BTC is ranging a (slightly) descending wedge within a larger (~5 week) ascending triangle that served as a strong re-accumuluation phase for whales/industry.
Currently: We appear to be trending down on the smaller timeframe. Bulls lack the strength to break bullish on the smaller (slightly) descending wedge. We observed stronger sell volume towards the end of the wedge and will likely break bearish to retest the larger ascending triangle that we ranged for the past ~5 weeks. FA indicates generally bullish sentiment. TA indicates short term bearish sentiment.
Bottom Line: We impatiently wait for the bull and bear [whales] to free us from this endless ranging/accumulation. Their accumulation and miner hodling is a strong indicator that we are on the verge of a very strong impulsive breakout. We saw Bitcoin paint a very clear picture today that retail was ready to breakout bullish (again)- but whale activity increased notably- 2% today in a pattern that was declining since late March. They lined up a strong defense around 60k and rebuffed retail's attempt to breakout. I think it will breakout in less than 48 hours, watch for volatility to increase notably as a signal that a breakout is near.
If we break bullish today, I don't expect a big drop. Your first strong support is the POC which is fairly close around 59.8k. Even when breached in the past 48 hours, the chart has recovered and moved back above it. This is also the highest volume area and thus the strongest price point in the past 45 days.
If that fails to support BTC, a retest of the March close is our next support around ~58.8k. Monthly and weekly closes serve as strong psychological supports and this is where I would look for a potential long entry. The safest option is to await validation and see a strong spring from the lower range between these supports, and enter just above the POC with a stoploss no lower than 58.8k.
Alternatively, whales appear to be extremely stubborn over the past month and may just disregard patterns and logic and keep us ranging near the top of this ascending triangle for now. On the 4 hour chart we haven't closed a or opened a candle more than 1% away from the POC since midday Friday and we are getting increasingly pressed for room to range within the final days of the ascending triangle on the macro.
Whats Next: I recommend looking for potential long entries at the bottom supports I outlined above. But practice safe stoploss. If we fall below those, be prepared to revisit the bottom of the macro around 57-58k. If we see a bullish breakout in the coming day(s) my target is between 70-75k using the left extent of the current ascending triangle to forecast a breakout target.
Other Indicators:
Background: BTC is ranging a (slightly) descending wedge within a larger (~5 week) ascending triangle that served as a strong re-accumuluation phase for whales/industry.
Currently: We appear to be trending down on the smaller timeframe. Bulls lack the strength to break bullish on the smaller (slightly) descending wedge. We observed stronger sell volume towards the end of the wedge and will likely break bearish to retest the larger ascending triangle that we ranged for the past ~5 weeks. FA indicates generally bullish sentiment. TA indicates short term bearish sentiment.
Bottom Line: We impatiently wait for the bull and bear [whales] to free us from this endless ranging/accumulation. Their accumulation and miner hodling is a strong indicator that we are on the verge of a very strong impulsive breakout. We saw Bitcoin paint a very clear picture today that retail was ready to breakout bullish (again)- but whale activity increased notably- 2% today in a pattern that was declining since late March. They lined up a strong defense around 60k and rebuffed retail's attempt to breakout. I think it will breakout in less than 48 hours, watch for volatility to increase notably as a signal that a breakout is near.
If we break bullish today, I don't expect a big drop. Your first strong support is the POC which is fairly close around 59.8k. Even when breached in the past 48 hours, the chart has recovered and moved back above it. This is also the highest volume area and thus the strongest price point in the past 45 days.
If that fails to support BTC, a retest of the March close is our next support around ~58.8k. Monthly and weekly closes serve as strong psychological supports and this is where I would look for a potential long entry. The safest option is to await validation and see a strong spring from the lower range between these supports, and enter just above the POC with a stoploss no lower than 58.8k.
Alternatively, whales appear to be extremely stubborn over the past month and may just disregard patterns and logic and keep us ranging near the top of this ascending triangle for now. On the 4 hour chart we haven't closed a or opened a candle more than 1% away from the POC since midday Friday and we are getting increasingly pressed for room to range within the final days of the ascending triangle on the macro.
Whats Next: I recommend looking for potential long entries at the bottom supports I outlined above. But practice safe stoploss. If we fall below those, be prepared to revisit the bottom of the macro around 57-58k. If we see a bullish breakout in the coming day(s) my target is between 70-75k using the left extent of the current ascending triangle to forecast a breakout target.
Other Indicators:
- Bearish: Whale Ratio is up 2% today! They dumped bags on the market to block the breakout. cryptoquant.com/prochart/x49yb7hiuk . I believe this is short term bearish.
- Bearish: Failed to break and hold over 60k. This is short term bearish.
- Bullish: Miners hodling.
- Neutral probably Bullish: Whales have reaccumulated to the point of holding as much BTC as they did 11 months ago and I expect that number to grow. This weakens retail's power over market movements so trade carefully.
- Bullish: Coinbase IPO has a lot of excitement in the community
- Bearish: Greed and Fear index is climbing. Those watching BNB can observe just how greedy the market is now.
- Bearish: Exchange inflows are the highest they have been since the peak February correction around 23 February. Whales really want us to stay here for now. I believe this is short term bearish.
Note
We had the fakeout, a healthy breakout but equally convincing dip. Just the whales shaking us out. Still think reasonable targets here along the POC, 60k and March monthly close, which has acted as a strong support at times in the past month.Note
Yellow areas were for someone else, was showing them the value range we are stuck in at the moment. Conentraction of trade volume.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.