I want to clarify some thoughts I have about BTCUSD and where it's headed long term.
It's important for me to assert that bitcoin is bullish in the long term. This is true because the longer term moving averages I use (45, 120, 195 Fibonacci sequence) are all in an uptrend on the daily chart. Additionally, the 45 and 120 moving averages are above the 195 moving average. Bullish long term trend in my book. Period.
The only way this could change to bearish is: 1) 45 and 120 move below 195 moving average.. MA... and 2) All 3 MAs have a downward slope. Not happening anytime soon. I'll keep you posted.
So, calls for a massive sell off, could they happen? Yes they can, and yet the longer term bullish outlook would remain intact. How? As long as bitcoin remains above the 195 MA on the daily chart, and the other two MAs... 45 and 120.. remain in an uptrend, no problem. That line in the sand is currently $6750. Bitcoin moves fast, remember? That's why it's so exciting to trade, and now the big boys are joining us because they're starting to notice this party is happening.
Ok... moving on. The single most important factor you can remember as a trader... know your time frame. Base your trading decisions on a single time frame. I prefer the daily chart, because I tend to hold positions for a longer time. I'm not saying don't look at the 4 hour, 1 hour, 15 min, 5 min chart.. those are great and will give you more fine tuned impressions, but always come back to your primary time frame and base your trading decisions on that chart. Day traders will want a time frame of 5 mins or so, swing traders about 15 mins up to daily chart (I consider myself a swing trader... I will hold a position anywhere from 1 day to 3 months, but typically around 1 to 4 weeks). If you stick to this one rule, you will do better with your trades.
Bitcoin is in this massively beautiful uptrend. What I love about bitcoin is the technical signals have a fidelity about them. It truly is the collective consciousness mapped in real time, without constraints imposed by nefarious characters en masse.
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