BTC is finally reaching a resistance

Updated

So it's been a while, but BTC has pushed through the first resistance and 50 SMA as expected, reaching now a big resistance at $4000 levels. I"m not too confident about the targets yet, but I expect these to be around $4000 - $4300 as I mentioned in my previous analyses.
First thing to see is that BTC is already printing a hidden bearish divergence (blue lines), getting the RSI to overbought levels already. I am looking for what will happen in the next few days, perhaps a spike even above the resistance will occur. If the resistance will not hold, then the 200 SMA will probably be the next target, but I don't expect this to happen, it is just not probable right now.

Previous analysis:

BTC is having a hard time getting through the first resistance

Note

I am wondering now if we haven't reached our top already. Daily chart is showing divergence, now it's dropping volume on lower time frames. That would be a bummer, because it's literally a few dollars under my target.
A downward correction may happen soon, but I expect the price to revisit these levels to test the resistance once more.

Note

Finally! It has reached the target zone. And just when I really thought it won't get there. The setup for a short is showing up. Price at the resistance, a small bearish divergence in progress on 4h. Sure it is too soon to paint it like this, but we have to try to see beforehand, before things actually happen.
Also notice that RSI is overbought on a daily timeframe, which happened only two times in 2018 and both times it resulted in sell-off.

The position shouldn't be big, after all we are down a lot already and we can be caught with our pants down, if the bulls actually show strength and continue this run. But, given the circumstances, the odds of that happening is much lower than the opposite for now.

Note

Aaand we have a rather violent rejection of $4300 :) The dump even exceeded my expectations, it's damn fast. But this is clearly some whale dumping, we have to wait for more info. The chance of topping out increased rapidly though. If you opened a position, you can move SL to break-even, you are in guaranteed profit now :)

Byte91

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